RECAP
Wade beats no one: It wasn't Kobe vs. Wade, it was Wade vs. no one. If I see Ronny Turiaf's picture under "top performers" in the Yahoo box score, that means that LA didn't come to play. I said Wade would have to outperform Kobe to have a shot at winning. I can't find the exact quote but Wade said something like, "That was the best all around game I've had." Reports say that Kobe had a "touch of the flu." Whatever. He didn't get up for the game at all. Phil Jackson suggested to his team at halftime that maybe he should stay in the locker room and watch A Christmas Carol while the team went back out to play. They all should have just stayed in the locker room. They could have recruited some fans to come in and play the second half. That would have been entertaining at least.
Last night's record: 0-1
Overall: 30-32
PICKS
Memphis +7 1/2 at Washington----- Confidence factor: 3 It seems that lately in every recap of a wiz win or preview of a wiz game, we get an Eddie Jordan quote that goes something like this: "He wants to show he's going to be one of the greatest of all time." Jordan is trying to motivate Arenas to go nuts, put up 50 again. He's so streaky and the streaks are so psychological that Jordan can't help but try. I would love to see Arenas coached by Phil Jackson, just to here what kind of crazy things Jackson would say and to to try to get Arenas to go off. Arenas seems to have a bad game every 6-10 games. He had a bad one just 3 games ago at Denver (10/30 fgs). I see him playing well enough to cover.
Houston at Indiana (No spread available)----- Confidence factor: NA T-Mac should be back tonight. Dike should log big minutes again and if T-Mac doesn't play, expect the scoring load to fall on Luther Head. Historically, McGrady has played pretty well in his 1st game back off injury. I will pick Indiana by 4 which if they ever release a spread, will probably have me picking Houston. UPDATE: It looks like O'Neal is sitting out with the flu. I think Indy still wins this one, maybe knock off a point or two.
New Jersey +7 at Detroit----- Confidence factor: 2 Welcome to the post-Krstic world. Please, Krstic is not that great of a player. If the nets felt that they could make a run before he got hurt, they should still do fine after. They need to play more Moore and Josh Boone needs to have a boon in his minutes. These guys can't replace Krstic, but they bring a different element to the game. I don't think Frank will become desperate enough to open his mind to this reality after just one loss, so House will probably start again. That means VC gets to guard Nazr Mohammed. Detroit's front line isn't as intimidating as it once was, but they should still get the job done against a reeling NJ team.
Chicago +1 at Minnesota----- Confidence factor: 4 I don't have time for this. Trade KG.
Milwaukee +9 at San Antonio----- Confidence factor: 4 Did San Antonio release enough of its rage over losing to Houston when they whooped the Hornets? I think so. The Bucks have always given the Spurs and Pistons trouble. Well, that is to say, Michael Redd has. The Spurs seem to sleep at predictable times. They don't play hard against bad teams unless something else is motivating them (IE a recent bad loss). After having some Christmas jollity, I don't see the Spurs coming out with the intensity it will take to shut down Redd and the Bucks.
Charlotte +13 at Dallas----- Confidence factor: 4 The fantasy dude over at SI.com is saying that Knight is going to be out until after new years. In his report, published today, he also conflicts the reports that McGrady will play, so I don't know how up to date this guy is. He doesn't cite any sources, and the preview for this game says that the Bobcats are "hopeful" that Knight will play. I'm sick of getting burned by picking the Bobcats only to see that Knight sat out and 'Cats were blown out, So I go with Dallas.
Clippers +7 1/2 at Utah----- Confidence factor: 5 **PICK OF THE NIGHT** Cassell says he's going to have to sit for a while. Utah had some precarious moments on their recent road trip, losing to NY and Charlotte and scraping out 4th quarter comebacks against Atlanta and Memphis. They will rejoice and relax after being home and enjoying some Christmas pot roast and get back to their dominating ways against the Clips.
Portland +12 1/2 at Phoenix----- Confidence factor: 1 This is a tough pick. It's hard to say how Phoenix will respond to Arenas single handedly ending their win streak. Either way, they've played a lot of mediocre teams close, so even though their last game against Portland was a blowout, I'll take portland to cover.
New Orleans +6 at Seattle----- Confidence factor: 2 Only six points? Does Ray Allen play his second consecutive big game after returning from injury? As much as I'd like to take New Orleans here, just because they're playing a team with only a bit more talent, I think Allen has been aching to get back and has a big game tonight.
Philadelphia +6 at Golden State----- Confidence factor: 2 Ellis is hurt. Hard to get a read on the new Sixers. Wins against Boston without Pierce and Wally, and New York without almost 1/2 their team for a week, don't say much to me. I like that Iguodala is getting more shots here and I think this team will win more than they would have with just a mopey AI. The ball is going to move. Golden State is coming off of a weak performance. J-Rich is sort of back, but is clearly far from 100%. Gotta go with Philly here.
Boston +6 1/2 at Denver----- AI will have to carry Denver on offense here. Big time. Denver will again be without their defensive anchor, Marcus Camby. Denver still has defensive stopper Yakhouba Diawara and a big man to cover al jefferson in Nene. But again they have no one who can shoot the ball except for their little guy. I think a general lack of leadership (certainly none coming from the bench) will leave Boston disorganized on both sides of the floor. Their one strength is that they have little guys who can cover the perimeter, but I don't think anyone will be stopping AI in these first few honeymooning weeks.
Showing posts with label NBA Point Spread. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NBA Point Spread. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
Saturday, December 23, 2006
picks tonight (12/23)
Okay starting tonight I'm adding two elements to my picks. First I'm going to give a confidence rating of 1 through 5 (5 meaning I'm quite confident in my pick). Second I am going to have a pick of the night. I will track my pick of the night record separately.
Timberwolves +4 1/2 at Indiana----- Confidence factor: 2. The first meeting of the year between these two teams. Indy has been looking good. KG and Ricky Davis sat in Minny's last game in Indiana and the Wolves lost by 12. Indy has had some solid wins in their recent streak of 4 wins in 5 games. I go with Indy here, but more out of disrespect for the Wolves than respect for the Pacers.
Orlando +7 1/2 at Cleveland----- Confidence factor: 3. Orlando is coming off of a home loss to GS, but as I said in my recap of that game, Baron Davis controlled that game. Orlando was helpless. GS also has many more tools than Cleveland does. If Cleveland wins this game it will be in a gritty and tight fought defensive battle.
New York +3 at Philadelphia----- Confidence factor: 4. Can't pick against New York after that convincing victory over Chicago, especially when Philly is playing its first game with Miller and Smith. Historically NY has given up big games to bad players like Willie Green. Andre Miller has also had some good success against the Knicks. I don't consider it out of the question that Philly pulls this one out, but if the Knicks play defense like they have in any of these last 3 games, they should easily dispose of the Sixers.
Atlanta +10 1/2 at Detroit----- Confidence factor: 4. Atlanta has struggled to finish games lately. They are at full strength and they only lost by 5 in their last visit to Detroit. In most of Detroit's losses you will find that big games from the opposition's post man led them to victory. Atlanta has no post presence to speak of. I also feel that Detroit is a team of streaks and they have really picked things up since they last met Atlanta.
Golden State +5 1/2 at Miami----- Confidence factor: 2. Golden State now has it's wild card in Baron Davis. Davis is hot. He's carried them in their recent road winning streak. J-Rich still ain't right, but they've got plenty of other talent. I'll go with the wild card here and say Davis stays hot. The heat have no chance if he does.
San Antonio -9 1/2 at New Orleans----- Confidence factor: 2. San Antonio is coming off of an embarrassing trampling at home against Houston. New Orleans also looked somewhat energized in their home victory against Memphis. I think the embarrassment motivates the spurs to a 10+ point victory.
Utah -4 at Memphis----- Confidence factor: 4. Okur has a bruised chest. Utah has been far from dominant on this road trip (2-2). The question I'm asking myself is, did Utah lose to Charlotte because Charlotte can only win against premiere teams, or was it just a poor performance? I'm not sure, but one thing I can say is that the Knicks have shown that they're performance against Utah wasn't a fluke, so that provides some relief for what could have been labeled an embarrassment for Utah. They also beat an Indiana team which has surrounded that loss with 4 wins. I think Utah wins this. If Okur sits, that's fine - Kirilenko gets to play PF where he is much more comfortable and Millsap steps in.
New Jersey +4 at Milwaukee----- **PICK OF THE NIGHT** Confidence factor: 5. The bucks are an inconsistent team. The Nets are without Krstic, but to me this is a good thing. This opens the door for more PT for Mikki Moore and Josh Boone. The Nets need athletic big men on the court, and Lawrence Frank's refusal to put these guys out there is quite annoying. Krstic is a decent low post guy, but he doesn't rebound and he doesn't block shots. Carter could turn out to be a better post player than Krstic and either way it will force the nets to run more. Look for a blowout.
Clippers +7 1/2 at Houston----- Confidence factor: 3. After the timberwolves the team that I find most annoying is the Clippers. Houston is coming off a big win at San Antonio, but they aren't an explosive streaky team. They just caught the spurs on an off night. The clippers just suck though. They are totally lost. You'd have to add 10 points to that spread for me to pick them.
Charlotte +10 1/2 at Chicago----- Confidence factor: 1. Charlotte doesn't get to be a king killer because the Knicks just dismantled Chicago last night. The Bulls haven't played Charlotte yet this season. Charlotte is a competitive with Knight in the lineup (only 1 15+ point loss). Unfortunately I don't know if Knight will play and he is unlikely to play much if he does. Chicago looked pretty bad against the Knicks. Can they recover in time for tonight's game? I have to take Charlotte here, just because it seems more likely than not that Knight will play.
Toronto +5 at Seattle----- Confidence factor: 3. Ray Allen is supposed to play tonight. He has sat 9 straight games so his minutes and effectiveness may be somewhat limited. He was also shooting pretty poorly before because of the foot injury, so maybe he's pain free and goes nuts. Either way I think TJ Ford will lead this mysteriously successful Toronto team to victory.
Timberwolves +4 1/2 at Indiana----- Confidence factor: 2. The first meeting of the year between these two teams. Indy has been looking good. KG and Ricky Davis sat in Minny's last game in Indiana and the Wolves lost by 12. Indy has had some solid wins in their recent streak of 4 wins in 5 games. I go with Indy here, but more out of disrespect for the Wolves than respect for the Pacers.
Orlando +7 1/2 at Cleveland----- Confidence factor: 3. Orlando is coming off of a home loss to GS, but as I said in my recap of that game, Baron Davis controlled that game. Orlando was helpless. GS also has many more tools than Cleveland does. If Cleveland wins this game it will be in a gritty and tight fought defensive battle.
New York +3 at Philadelphia----- Confidence factor: 4. Can't pick against New York after that convincing victory over Chicago, especially when Philly is playing its first game with Miller and Smith. Historically NY has given up big games to bad players like Willie Green. Andre Miller has also had some good success against the Knicks. I don't consider it out of the question that Philly pulls this one out, but if the Knicks play defense like they have in any of these last 3 games, they should easily dispose of the Sixers.
Atlanta +10 1/2 at Detroit----- Confidence factor: 4. Atlanta has struggled to finish games lately. They are at full strength and they only lost by 5 in their last visit to Detroit. In most of Detroit's losses you will find that big games from the opposition's post man led them to victory. Atlanta has no post presence to speak of. I also feel that Detroit is a team of streaks and they have really picked things up since they last met Atlanta.
Golden State +5 1/2 at Miami----- Confidence factor: 2. Golden State now has it's wild card in Baron Davis. Davis is hot. He's carried them in their recent road winning streak. J-Rich still ain't right, but they've got plenty of other talent. I'll go with the wild card here and say Davis stays hot. The heat have no chance if he does.
San Antonio -9 1/2 at New Orleans----- Confidence factor: 2. San Antonio is coming off of an embarrassing trampling at home against Houston. New Orleans also looked somewhat energized in their home victory against Memphis. I think the embarrassment motivates the spurs to a 10+ point victory.
Utah -4 at Memphis----- Confidence factor: 4. Okur has a bruised chest. Utah has been far from dominant on this road trip (2-2). The question I'm asking myself is, did Utah lose to Charlotte because Charlotte can only win against premiere teams, or was it just a poor performance? I'm not sure, but one thing I can say is that the Knicks have shown that they're performance against Utah wasn't a fluke, so that provides some relief for what could have been labeled an embarrassment for Utah. They also beat an Indiana team which has surrounded that loss with 4 wins. I think Utah wins this. If Okur sits, that's fine - Kirilenko gets to play PF where he is much more comfortable and Millsap steps in.
New Jersey +4 at Milwaukee----- **PICK OF THE NIGHT** Confidence factor: 5. The bucks are an inconsistent team. The Nets are without Krstic, but to me this is a good thing. This opens the door for more PT for Mikki Moore and Josh Boone. The Nets need athletic big men on the court, and Lawrence Frank's refusal to put these guys out there is quite annoying. Krstic is a decent low post guy, but he doesn't rebound and he doesn't block shots. Carter could turn out to be a better post player than Krstic and either way it will force the nets to run more. Look for a blowout.
Clippers +7 1/2 at Houston----- Confidence factor: 3. After the timberwolves the team that I find most annoying is the Clippers. Houston is coming off a big win at San Antonio, but they aren't an explosive streaky team. They just caught the spurs on an off night. The clippers just suck though. They are totally lost. You'd have to add 10 points to that spread for me to pick them.
Charlotte +10 1/2 at Chicago----- Confidence factor: 1. Charlotte doesn't get to be a king killer because the Knicks just dismantled Chicago last night. The Bulls haven't played Charlotte yet this season. Charlotte is a competitive with Knight in the lineup (only 1 15+ point loss). Unfortunately I don't know if Knight will play and he is unlikely to play much if he does. Chicago looked pretty bad against the Knicks. Can they recover in time for tonight's game? I have to take Charlotte here, just because it seems more likely than not that Knight will play.
Toronto +5 at Seattle----- Confidence factor: 3. Ray Allen is supposed to play tonight. He has sat 9 straight games so his minutes and effectiveness may be somewhat limited. He was also shooting pretty poorly before because of the foot injury, so maybe he's pain free and goes nuts. Either way I think TJ Ford will lead this mysteriously successful Toronto team to victory.
last nights games
My Wrongs:
Charlotte beats Utah----- I don't think many people picked this one. As I was thinking over this pick I did consider, for a brief moment, the fact that Charlotte has beaten a lot of good teams. I also considered the fact that Utah really struggles against the zone and Okafor makes the zone appealing for Charlotte. I guess I should have considered those factors more. I don't know though - if they were playing again in Charlotte next week with the same spread I would still pick Utah. Who wouldn't?
Quote from AP recap: Carroll, who hadn't attempted a shot in the first three quarters, launched a 3-pointer from the right wing. Andrei Kirilenko lunged at him and Carroll's follow-through hit him in the mouth, chipping his tooth. The shot fell and Kirilenko was called for the foul.
"It was hanging and he just grabbed it and threw it to the ground," Carroll said. "I said to him, 'Are you OK?' and he said, 'It's just a tooth.' I'm thinking this guy is one tough Russian. I thought he was going to break me the next time I came down court."
Golden State beats Orlando----- J-Rich only played 15 minutes (1/5). The story of this game was Baron Davis (38 points, 9 assists, 4 steals). When you are missing two of your top scorers and a guy with superstar talent is going off like that, you are going to lose. Some guys can just take over a game and that's what Baron did.
New York beats Chicago----- Ben Gordon always has big games against New York and tonight was no exception (27 points). The story of this game however was the Knicks absolute dominance on the boards. The Knicks had 20 offensive rebounds and outrebounded Chicago 57-36. Sick. I don't have to remind you that David Lee is a monster. And he's becoming the leader of this team. He's the one who comes over and unabashedly congratulates teammates when they make plays. He is always having fun and he's teaching the Knicks how to have fun again in the process. Having fun in the pressure of NYC is tough (just look at how NY started off at home), so Lee's effect on this team cannot be overemphasized. And Chicago continued to try to play Andres Nocioni, Deng and Wallace up front. The Knicks had Frye, Curry and Lee in. It's no wonder the Bulls were abused on the boards. It wasn't until late 3rd quarter that Skiles put Mike Sweetney in (remember him?). The Knicks looked like they looked against Utah. Every time someone got beat another guy would step up and help, and the defense recovered off of almost all the passes. Eddy Curry was into it. Jerome James and Kelvin Cato were on the floor at the same time because Lee and Frye were in early foul trouble. They were into it. I think I saw Jerome James contest a 3 pointer for the first time in his life. Also noteworthy is the crap game Hinrich played. He was missing open jumpers. He was passing up open 15 footers. He was committing bad fouls. His #s this year, other than a commendable increase in FG%, are down across the board. I wonder what the problem is. I've always been a fan of his, but it seems like he hasn't improved since his second year.
Indiana beats Atlanta----- Stephen Jackson went off. Joe Johnson's young friends struggled. Claxton still hasn't put together two straight solid games. Maybe next time Atlanta gets it straight? Eh, I maintain long term optimism (as in a couple of months), but they seem to be missing something for the time being.
Toronto beats Portland----- I guess TJ Ford is good. I think that's been my problem in comprehending how Toronto is winning. I still insist that it is in spite of Sam Mitchell and in spite of the fact that that Mo-Pete hardly plays. Brandon Roy almost had a triple double. Maybe Ime Udoka can go to the Nets and join Jason Collins in the starting lineup. His line last night: 20 minutes, 1/8 fgs, 4 pts, 1 rebound, 1 assist. It's funny, if you just looked at the minutes column in the box score for this game, you would be ready to put big money on the fact that this was a bad blowout. Between the two teams there were 3 starters who logged 35+ minutes. And this was an overtime game.
Washington beats Phoenix in OT----- I told you I don't like picking Washington games, but I was pretty confident that they would lose this one. Instead Gilbert Arenas goes nuts again and carries his team into OT then to victory. Yes, he had help, but if he regular old 10/25 fgs, 35 points Gil, the suns are double digit winners. Instead his 54 trump steve nash's career high tying 42 and the Wiz walk away winners. Arenas just likes to be unpredictable. I should try to use logic to pick the rest of the wizards games and then pick the opposite result.
Philadelphia beats Boston----- No wally, no pierce. Wish I'd realized pierce was out. Al Jefferson gets to experience what it's like to be the other team's focus defensively. Gerald Green got big minutes and will continue to until Pierce gets back. We can get something of a better idea if the Celts were wise to hang on to him instead of Iverson. My first impression here is that Green is like JR Smith, athletically gifted, defensively inept and uninterested, and a pretty good shooter.
My Rights:
Lakers beat Nets----- Krstic goes down earlier. VC goes for 33 but on 13/30 shooting. Kobe takes only 13 shots and scores 21 but also has 11 assists. I have no doubt in my mind that Kobe is the best player in the league today. He still has an inferiority complex, but he has learned to hold it back. He understands how to win and he is a bit more sensitive about the fragile psyches of his teammates. And the Nets still suck. Jason Collins plays 30 minutes, doesn't attempt a shot and manages 5 rebounds and a block. When are the nets going to realize that you can't win with a guy like this playing 30 minutes? Kidd is a dangerous passer. He has to work with 1 less target because not only is Collins a below average set shot shooter, but he is practically immobile. He isn't going to run the break, he can't catch the ball inside and then go up. His identical twin Jarron looks so much younger.
Houston beats San Antonio----- Like I said in me preview, the easiest and most effective way to kick Houston's butt is to run and attack. Use athleticism. San Antonio is below average in both athleticism and ability to run. Now guys like Juwan Howard look competent. Bonzi showed up for this one too. Maybe Houston should just let T-Mac have back massages for 8 hours a day until the playoffs. If Bonzi plays well they could still get a 5th seed or so. Then T-Mac would be good and loose.
New Orleans beats Memphis in OT----- Memphis came back late in this came and took the lead. New Orleans took it to OT and by then Gasol had used all the minutes he was allowed. That's the end of the story.
Milwaukee beats Minnesota----- Trade KG. That's all I'm gonna talk about it Minnesota losses until it happens. Trade him. The bucks suck. They didn't even have their second string small forward, Ruben Patterson. KG, look at your roster. Your team is bad and by sitting there and wasting away you aren't helping anyone. All you are doing is allowing Minnesota owners to cash in on your name. That's why they won't trade you - you're a cash cow. It has nothing to do with delusional faith that your team will one day magically click and be good.
Dallas beats Clips----- Dirk played and the mavs won by 32. I maintain that this would still have been a 20 point victory if Dirk had sat. I don't have anything left to say about this team. It's a simple equation. If starting pg ≠ (yes that's the "not equal to" sign) "Sam Cassell", clippers wins = "few far between". Another team that will regret not getting AI.
Sac beats Denver----- Artest sat again. AI had a good opener, but as I predicted the rest of Denver sucked. Also John Salmons had a triple double. Funny, he would be the second best player on the sixers right now if they had signed him instead of Willie Green, Korver and future all-star Kevin Ollie.
Last night's record: 6-6
Overall: 27-23
Charlotte beats Utah----- I don't think many people picked this one. As I was thinking over this pick I did consider, for a brief moment, the fact that Charlotte has beaten a lot of good teams. I also considered the fact that Utah really struggles against the zone and Okafor makes the zone appealing for Charlotte. I guess I should have considered those factors more. I don't know though - if they were playing again in Charlotte next week with the same spread I would still pick Utah. Who wouldn't?
Quote from AP recap: Carroll, who hadn't attempted a shot in the first three quarters, launched a 3-pointer from the right wing. Andrei Kirilenko lunged at him and Carroll's follow-through hit him in the mouth, chipping his tooth. The shot fell and Kirilenko was called for the foul.
"It was hanging and he just grabbed it and threw it to the ground," Carroll said. "I said to him, 'Are you OK?' and he said, 'It's just a tooth.' I'm thinking this guy is one tough Russian. I thought he was going to break me the next time I came down court."
Golden State beats Orlando----- J-Rich only played 15 minutes (1/5). The story of this game was Baron Davis (38 points, 9 assists, 4 steals). When you are missing two of your top scorers and a guy with superstar talent is going off like that, you are going to lose. Some guys can just take over a game and that's what Baron did.
New York beats Chicago----- Ben Gordon always has big games against New York and tonight was no exception (27 points). The story of this game however was the Knicks absolute dominance on the boards. The Knicks had 20 offensive rebounds and outrebounded Chicago 57-36. Sick. I don't have to remind you that David Lee is a monster. And he's becoming the leader of this team. He's the one who comes over and unabashedly congratulates teammates when they make plays. He is always having fun and he's teaching the Knicks how to have fun again in the process. Having fun in the pressure of NYC is tough (just look at how NY started off at home), so Lee's effect on this team cannot be overemphasized. And Chicago continued to try to play Andres Nocioni, Deng and Wallace up front. The Knicks had Frye, Curry and Lee in. It's no wonder the Bulls were abused on the boards. It wasn't until late 3rd quarter that Skiles put Mike Sweetney in (remember him?). The Knicks looked like they looked against Utah. Every time someone got beat another guy would step up and help, and the defense recovered off of almost all the passes. Eddy Curry was into it. Jerome James and Kelvin Cato were on the floor at the same time because Lee and Frye were in early foul trouble. They were into it. I think I saw Jerome James contest a 3 pointer for the first time in his life. Also noteworthy is the crap game Hinrich played. He was missing open jumpers. He was passing up open 15 footers. He was committing bad fouls. His #s this year, other than a commendable increase in FG%, are down across the board. I wonder what the problem is. I've always been a fan of his, but it seems like he hasn't improved since his second year.
Indiana beats Atlanta----- Stephen Jackson went off. Joe Johnson's young friends struggled. Claxton still hasn't put together two straight solid games. Maybe next time Atlanta gets it straight? Eh, I maintain long term optimism (as in a couple of months), but they seem to be missing something for the time being.
Toronto beats Portland----- I guess TJ Ford is good. I think that's been my problem in comprehending how Toronto is winning. I still insist that it is in spite of Sam Mitchell and in spite of the fact that that Mo-Pete hardly plays. Brandon Roy almost had a triple double. Maybe Ime Udoka can go to the Nets and join Jason Collins in the starting lineup. His line last night: 20 minutes, 1/8 fgs, 4 pts, 1 rebound, 1 assist. It's funny, if you just looked at the minutes column in the box score for this game, you would be ready to put big money on the fact that this was a bad blowout. Between the two teams there were 3 starters who logged 35+ minutes. And this was an overtime game.
Washington beats Phoenix in OT----- I told you I don't like picking Washington games, but I was pretty confident that they would lose this one. Instead Gilbert Arenas goes nuts again and carries his team into OT then to victory. Yes, he had help, but if he regular old 10/25 fgs, 35 points Gil, the suns are double digit winners. Instead his 54 trump steve nash's career high tying 42 and the Wiz walk away winners. Arenas just likes to be unpredictable. I should try to use logic to pick the rest of the wizards games and then pick the opposite result.
Philadelphia beats Boston----- No wally, no pierce. Wish I'd realized pierce was out. Al Jefferson gets to experience what it's like to be the other team's focus defensively. Gerald Green got big minutes and will continue to until Pierce gets back. We can get something of a better idea if the Celts were wise to hang on to him instead of Iverson. My first impression here is that Green is like JR Smith, athletically gifted, defensively inept and uninterested, and a pretty good shooter.
My Rights:
Lakers beat Nets----- Krstic goes down earlier. VC goes for 33 but on 13/30 shooting. Kobe takes only 13 shots and scores 21 but also has 11 assists. I have no doubt in my mind that Kobe is the best player in the league today. He still has an inferiority complex, but he has learned to hold it back. He understands how to win and he is a bit more sensitive about the fragile psyches of his teammates. And the Nets still suck. Jason Collins plays 30 minutes, doesn't attempt a shot and manages 5 rebounds and a block. When are the nets going to realize that you can't win with a guy like this playing 30 minutes? Kidd is a dangerous passer. He has to work with 1 less target because not only is Collins a below average set shot shooter, but he is practically immobile. He isn't going to run the break, he can't catch the ball inside and then go up. His identical twin Jarron looks so much younger.
Houston beats San Antonio----- Like I said in me preview, the easiest and most effective way to kick Houston's butt is to run and attack. Use athleticism. San Antonio is below average in both athleticism and ability to run. Now guys like Juwan Howard look competent. Bonzi showed up for this one too. Maybe Houston should just let T-Mac have back massages for 8 hours a day until the playoffs. If Bonzi plays well they could still get a 5th seed or so. Then T-Mac would be good and loose.
New Orleans beats Memphis in OT----- Memphis came back late in this came and took the lead. New Orleans took it to OT and by then Gasol had used all the minutes he was allowed. That's the end of the story.
Milwaukee beats Minnesota----- Trade KG. That's all I'm gonna talk about it Minnesota losses until it happens. Trade him. The bucks suck. They didn't even have their second string small forward, Ruben Patterson. KG, look at your roster. Your team is bad and by sitting there and wasting away you aren't helping anyone. All you are doing is allowing Minnesota owners to cash in on your name. That's why they won't trade you - you're a cash cow. It has nothing to do with delusional faith that your team will one day magically click and be good.
Dallas beats Clips----- Dirk played and the mavs won by 32. I maintain that this would still have been a 20 point victory if Dirk had sat. I don't have anything left to say about this team. It's a simple equation. If starting pg ≠ (yes that's the "not equal to" sign) "Sam Cassell", clippers wins = "few far between". Another team that will regret not getting AI.
Sac beats Denver----- Artest sat again. AI had a good opener, but as I predicted the rest of Denver sucked. Also John Salmons had a triple double. Funny, he would be the second best player on the sixers right now if they had signed him instead of Willie Green, Korver and future all-star Kevin Ollie.
Last night's record: 6-6
Overall: 27-23
Thursday, December 21, 2006
KG After AI Trade
KG was quoted saying he was, "a little bit" disappointed when asked how he felt about AI going to Denver.
He continued, "That's pretty much how it goes around here. I've learned not to put too much belief and hope in things until they're concrete and done. ... It would have been a very, very nice Christmas present."
Demand the trade already, KG. We won't blame you. The T-Wolves, the Bulls and the rest of the NBA will all be thankful... At least until they play you and the Bulls in the playoffs.
PICKS FROM TWO NIGHTS AGO
I missed picking last night as I was too busy, but here's a quick recap of Tuesday's picks.
Phoenix beats Toronto----- They covered the 13.5 point spread, but it was kinda close there. Check out the box score from this game (or last night's win at the Clippers) and you will see why John Hollinger is irritated with Toronto. These guys have no rotation and guys get starts and get benched for no apparent reason. Fire Sam Mitchell already. How many in a row is Phoenix going to win?
Bulls beat Lakers----- Bulls just pull this out in a close game. Lakers cover the spread (barely).
Record on Tuesday: 2-0
Overall: 19-17
PICKS FOR TONIGHT
Detroit +3 at Cleveland----- I think the best word to describe Cleveland is stagnant. Their roster is full of old and washed up players (Newble, Wesley, Damon Jones, Donyell Marshall, Scott Pollard, Eric Snow). Their leader, Lebron, is mild mannered and generally seems uninterested in dominating. No one on the team cares enough to challenge him. That being said, Lebron was spectacular in last years playoffs against the Pistons. This is the first time the two have met since then, so that could motivate Lyndon B. Johnson. Rasheed Wallace is expecting to play, and although Flip Saunders is an idiot, expect him to give Maxiell some burn backing up and playing along side Rasheed. It would be hard for him to ignore his performance in their last game. As Lebron has disappointed me much more often than he has surprised me, I will take the Pistons.
Washington +3 1/2 at Sacramento----- Kevin Martin is questionable - I interpret that as meaning there's about a 20% chance he plays. Washington is coming off what was in my opinion their worst performance of the year in a loss to Denver. In general, however, they have played pretty well of late. Gilbert Arenas gets up for games against other big name guards and small forwards or dominating teams. He has had 7 35+ point performances and only one came against a team with a starless backcourt - Indiana. He went off against Kobe, Pierce, Lebron, the Mavs, Marbury/Francis and T-Mac. So does he get up for the mediocre Kings on the road? In his last 2 games at Sacramento he has had games of 22 points on 8/17 shooting and 29 on 7/22 shooting. These numbers don't really impress me. Still, a 3 1/2 point spread for a below .500 team that is likely missing it's top scorer? I'm not convinced. More info: Washington won both games last year. When they were @ Sac they won without Arenas. They will find motivation from their last game and get their act together enough to win this one.
He continued, "That's pretty much how it goes around here. I've learned not to put too much belief and hope in things until they're concrete and done. ... It would have been a very, very nice Christmas present."
Demand the trade already, KG. We won't blame you. The T-Wolves, the Bulls and the rest of the NBA will all be thankful... At least until they play you and the Bulls in the playoffs.
PICKS FROM TWO NIGHTS AGO
I missed picking last night as I was too busy, but here's a quick recap of Tuesday's picks.
Phoenix beats Toronto----- They covered the 13.5 point spread, but it was kinda close there. Check out the box score from this game (or last night's win at the Clippers) and you will see why John Hollinger is irritated with Toronto. These guys have no rotation and guys get starts and get benched for no apparent reason. Fire Sam Mitchell already. How many in a row is Phoenix going to win?
Bulls beat Lakers----- Bulls just pull this out in a close game. Lakers cover the spread (barely).
Record on Tuesday: 2-0
Overall: 19-17
PICKS FOR TONIGHT
Detroit +3 at Cleveland----- I think the best word to describe Cleveland is stagnant. Their roster is full of old and washed up players (Newble, Wesley, Damon Jones, Donyell Marshall, Scott Pollard, Eric Snow). Their leader, Lebron, is mild mannered and generally seems uninterested in dominating. No one on the team cares enough to challenge him. That being said, Lebron was spectacular in last years playoffs against the Pistons. This is the first time the two have met since then, so that could motivate Lyndon B. Johnson. Rasheed Wallace is expecting to play, and although Flip Saunders is an idiot, expect him to give Maxiell some burn backing up and playing along side Rasheed. It would be hard for him to ignore his performance in their last game. As Lebron has disappointed me much more often than he has surprised me, I will take the Pistons.
Washington +3 1/2 at Sacramento----- Kevin Martin is questionable - I interpret that as meaning there's about a 20% chance he plays. Washington is coming off what was in my opinion their worst performance of the year in a loss to Denver. In general, however, they have played pretty well of late. Gilbert Arenas gets up for games against other big name guards and small forwards or dominating teams. He has had 7 35+ point performances and only one came against a team with a starless backcourt - Indiana. He went off against Kobe, Pierce, Lebron, the Mavs, Marbury/Francis and T-Mac. So does he get up for the mediocre Kings on the road? In his last 2 games at Sacramento he has had games of 22 points on 8/17 shooting and 29 on 7/22 shooting. These numbers don't really impress me. Still, a 3 1/2 point spread for a below .500 team that is likely missing it's top scorer? I'm not convinced. More info: Washington won both games last year. When they were @ Sac they won without Arenas. They will find motivation from their last game and get their act together enough to win this one.
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
picks for tonight
tonight you get quickpicks so I can write about the brawl and AI later-
Lakers +6 at Chicago----- I think it's a good bet that LA will at least cover. Chicago hasn't won many games against good teams.
Toronto +13.5 at Phoenix----- The return of Bryan Colangelo. I think Phoenix can cover this one. Toronto is due for a big loss. Jose Calderon is out. Phoenix is on a roll.
Lakers +6 at Chicago----- I think it's a good bet that LA will at least cover. Chicago hasn't won many games against good teams.
Toronto +13.5 at Phoenix----- The return of Bryan Colangelo. I think Phoenix can cover this one. Toronto is due for a big loss. Jose Calderon is out. Phoenix is on a roll.
Monday, December 18, 2006
recapping last nights games/picks
My rights (they're first so you can read my diatribe about the Knicks straight off):
New York beats Utah----- The Knicks led this game for almost the entire second half. Deron Williams (31% from long distance) made a three with a hand in his face to tie this game with 10 seconds left in regulation. Williams also made a difficult layup about 7 seconds earlier. Then in overtime he made a 3 pointer that was well short but somehow spun up off the front rim, 2 or 3 feet in the air, then dropped through the basket. And on the Jazz's final possession he made a jumpshot with his foot on the three point line, fading away with a man in his face. He almost willed the Jazz to victory. The Jazz played well too - it was just that the Knicks were amazingly active on defense. They had 9 blocks and 10 steals and many key deflections. David Lee, Channing Frye and Renaldo Balkman combined for 45 rebounds, 18 on the offensive end against the best rebounding front line in the NBA. The Knicks outrebounded the Jazz 63-49 and 23-15 on the offensive glass.
The Knicks won this game by playing at a higher level of intensity than a Jazz team that is known for it's grittyness and effort. How did this happen? Well, look at who played - Lee, Frye and Balkman all had career highs in minutes. What do these guys have in common? First, all of their minutes have gone way down since Jared Jeffries got healthy, second, Lee and Balkman are notorious effort guys who put up great numbers considering how few minutes they play. Marbury is playing well again and seemed to pick the perfect spots to get into the paint and score.
And the final ingredient here was that Eddy Curry was in foul trouble and played only 22 minutes. I am not saying that Eddy Curry hurts this team. Against a less active defensive team where Curry has more time to gather himself and less length coming at him in double teams, Curry is a strong offensive presence, but the Jazz are Curry Kryptonite. He managed to play 22 minutes (about 1/2 of them after he picked up is 5th foul) and turned the ball over 4 times. The difference on the defensive end between him and Kelvin Cato, who also looked like he was out there to prove something (4 blocks in 17 mins), was astonishing. Pretty much the only easy shots that Utah had in the last 3 quarters and OT were when Curry, camped out in the lane and probably thinking something like, "Hey guys, hurry up and rebound the ball so you guys can watch me in the post," screened out the other Knicks racing over to cut a driving Utah player off. Isiah Thomas was out of timeouts with about 1 minute left in regulation because he had been calling them just to get Curry out of the game on defense.
Isiah Thomas loses everything at the end of the season, so he really has nothing to lose but pride by sitting Curry (or Francis) in exchange for an effort player if the situation calls for that. And it often will.
Memphis beats Seattle in double OT----- Well they covered...... I'm surprised that the rooks didn't get more time in a double OT game, especially with a player who will be out of the league when his rookie contract is up (dahnte jones) in their starting lineup. Then again Fratello's a tightass and once Gasol is traded this is going to be his undoing. Mike Miller had his best game in what has been his best statistical season in his career. He basically matched Rashard Lewis shot for shot. Gasol still isn't rebounding, but he shot well in his limited minutes.
Miami beats New Orleans (N.O. covers)----- Hornets led most of the way here but Wade saved the game. No news here really - Wade is a very good player stuck on a talentless, old and injury filled team. The Heat managed to just gut out a victory at home against a team that is just 2-8 since Stojakovic went down. Miami has not beaten a team that is currently over .500 this entire season. Wade has had to go for 29+ in 9 of their 11 victories. Antoine Walker, a key contributor to the Heat's playoff run last year, hasn't played 30+ minutes in the Heat's last 10 games - he only played 6 in this one. I don't think it's possible for the Heat to miss the playoffs as long as Wade stays healthy, but they are likely to end up a low seed and unless 34 year old shaq can get back in to tip-top form really quickly, this very thin team will have a tough time advancing.
My wrongs:
New Jersey beats Golden State----- Both teams played pretty poorly. Jason Kidd had a triple double, but he still shot only 4/14. Carter and Jefferson also had poor shooting nights. If Nenad Krstic hadn't had one of his games where he can't miss a jump shot, the Nets may have lost this one. They definitely would have covered. Either way, Golden State looks really bad on the road.
Denver beats Washington----- So I'm looking at the shot chart from this game and I'm seeing a lot of freaking Xs for the wizards on the outside. So many, all on top of one another, that I can't even count the number of misses. Gilbert Arenas had 3 attempts in the paint and made only 1. Caron Butler had 3 attempts in paint and made 2. Jamison is the only player who got off a decent # of paint shots, but he didn't make a single shot outside of the paint (0/9 outside the paint, 4/7 in it). And that right there is the problem with the Wizards on offense. Don't get me wrong, they are a dangerous offensive team, but when those outside shots aren't falling, when Arenas isn't making any of those ridiculous perimeter shots he tosses up (as has been the case on the road most of the season with the exception of their last game at the lakers), Washington can't score. And when you can't score and you can't play defense, how can you possibly win? Out of 290 total minutes (48 minutes times 5 positions), Denver played Yakhouba Diawara, Reggie Evans and Najera 85. That's a little under a 1/3 of their minutes played by guys who average a combined 19 ppg. You don't have to cover these guys. In fact, there were only two guys on the floor who could consistently hit a shot from outside like 18 feet - Kleiza and Boykins. Washington had to defend about 30% less of the floor than most other games. And they still gave up 117 points to a team missing their two top scorers. If I was Eddie Jordan I would have left the arena after Denver put up 65 in the first freakin' half. In my opinion this was a truly embarrassing performance by the Wizards and I hope Eddie Jordan went absolutely berzerk on his team. Really really sad.
Dallas beats Sacramento----- Hey, if I'd been patient enough to read through the entire post game recap of Sac's last game or the preview of this one, I would have known that Kevin Martin was unlikely to play and I would have picked Dallas. Oh well.
Tonight: 3-3
Overall: 17-17
New York beats Utah----- The Knicks led this game for almost the entire second half. Deron Williams (31% from long distance) made a three with a hand in his face to tie this game with 10 seconds left in regulation. Williams also made a difficult layup about 7 seconds earlier. Then in overtime he made a 3 pointer that was well short but somehow spun up off the front rim, 2 or 3 feet in the air, then dropped through the basket. And on the Jazz's final possession he made a jumpshot with his foot on the three point line, fading away with a man in his face. He almost willed the Jazz to victory. The Jazz played well too - it was just that the Knicks were amazingly active on defense. They had 9 blocks and 10 steals and many key deflections. David Lee, Channing Frye and Renaldo Balkman combined for 45 rebounds, 18 on the offensive end against the best rebounding front line in the NBA. The Knicks outrebounded the Jazz 63-49 and 23-15 on the offensive glass.
The Knicks won this game by playing at a higher level of intensity than a Jazz team that is known for it's grittyness and effort. How did this happen? Well, look at who played - Lee, Frye and Balkman all had career highs in minutes. What do these guys have in common? First, all of their minutes have gone way down since Jared Jeffries got healthy, second, Lee and Balkman are notorious effort guys who put up great numbers considering how few minutes they play. Marbury is playing well again and seemed to pick the perfect spots to get into the paint and score.
And the final ingredient here was that Eddy Curry was in foul trouble and played only 22 minutes. I am not saying that Eddy Curry hurts this team. Against a less active defensive team where Curry has more time to gather himself and less length coming at him in double teams, Curry is a strong offensive presence, but the Jazz are Curry Kryptonite. He managed to play 22 minutes (about 1/2 of them after he picked up is 5th foul) and turned the ball over 4 times. The difference on the defensive end between him and Kelvin Cato, who also looked like he was out there to prove something (4 blocks in 17 mins), was astonishing. Pretty much the only easy shots that Utah had in the last 3 quarters and OT were when Curry, camped out in the lane and probably thinking something like, "Hey guys, hurry up and rebound the ball so you guys can watch me in the post," screened out the other Knicks racing over to cut a driving Utah player off. Isiah Thomas was out of timeouts with about 1 minute left in regulation because he had been calling them just to get Curry out of the game on defense.
Isiah Thomas loses everything at the end of the season, so he really has nothing to lose but pride by sitting Curry (or Francis) in exchange for an effort player if the situation calls for that. And it often will.
Memphis beats Seattle in double OT----- Well they covered...... I'm surprised that the rooks didn't get more time in a double OT game, especially with a player who will be out of the league when his rookie contract is up (dahnte jones) in their starting lineup. Then again Fratello's a tightass and once Gasol is traded this is going to be his undoing. Mike Miller had his best game in what has been his best statistical season in his career. He basically matched Rashard Lewis shot for shot. Gasol still isn't rebounding, but he shot well in his limited minutes.
Miami beats New Orleans (N.O. covers)----- Hornets led most of the way here but Wade saved the game. No news here really - Wade is a very good player stuck on a talentless, old and injury filled team. The Heat managed to just gut out a victory at home against a team that is just 2-8 since Stojakovic went down. Miami has not beaten a team that is currently over .500 this entire season. Wade has had to go for 29+ in 9 of their 11 victories. Antoine Walker, a key contributor to the Heat's playoff run last year, hasn't played 30+ minutes in the Heat's last 10 games - he only played 6 in this one. I don't think it's possible for the Heat to miss the playoffs as long as Wade stays healthy, but they are likely to end up a low seed and unless 34 year old shaq can get back in to tip-top form really quickly, this very thin team will have a tough time advancing.
My wrongs:
New Jersey beats Golden State----- Both teams played pretty poorly. Jason Kidd had a triple double, but he still shot only 4/14. Carter and Jefferson also had poor shooting nights. If Nenad Krstic hadn't had one of his games where he can't miss a jump shot, the Nets may have lost this one. They definitely would have covered. Either way, Golden State looks really bad on the road.
Denver beats Washington----- So I'm looking at the shot chart from this game and I'm seeing a lot of freaking Xs for the wizards on the outside. So many, all on top of one another, that I can't even count the number of misses. Gilbert Arenas had 3 attempts in the paint and made only 1. Caron Butler had 3 attempts in paint and made 2. Jamison is the only player who got off a decent # of paint shots, but he didn't make a single shot outside of the paint (0/9 outside the paint, 4/7 in it). And that right there is the problem with the Wizards on offense. Don't get me wrong, they are a dangerous offensive team, but when those outside shots aren't falling, when Arenas isn't making any of those ridiculous perimeter shots he tosses up (as has been the case on the road most of the season with the exception of their last game at the lakers), Washington can't score. And when you can't score and you can't play defense, how can you possibly win? Out of 290 total minutes (48 minutes times 5 positions), Denver played Yakhouba Diawara, Reggie Evans and Najera 85. That's a little under a 1/3 of their minutes played by guys who average a combined 19 ppg. You don't have to cover these guys. In fact, there were only two guys on the floor who could consistently hit a shot from outside like 18 feet - Kleiza and Boykins. Washington had to defend about 30% less of the floor than most other games. And they still gave up 117 points to a team missing their two top scorers. If I was Eddie Jordan I would have left the arena after Denver put up 65 in the first freakin' half. In my opinion this was a truly embarrassing performance by the Wizards and I hope Eddie Jordan went absolutely berzerk on his team. Really really sad.
Dallas beats Sacramento----- Hey, if I'd been patient enough to read through the entire post game recap of Sac's last game or the preview of this one, I would have known that Kevin Martin was unlikely to play and I would have picked Dallas. Oh well.
Tonight: 3-3
Overall: 17-17
Picks for today
Golden State +6 at New Jersey----- Nets have been playing like ass. They'll probably win, but not by much.
Utah -5 at New York----- Well the Knicks will be without Jared Jeffries, Nate Robinson, Mardy Collins, Jerome James (suspensions). They are also likely to be without Steve Francis and Quentin Richardson (injuries). That leaves Jamal Crawford and Marbury as the only two backcourt players. We will likely see some Renaldo Balkman at the two, and a lot of David Lee and Malik Rose at the 3. Utah is coming off a convincing victory at Indiana (who has already beaten New York twice this season). The Knicks are coming off of 2 straight blowouts. But this could an identity forming moment for the Knicks. I will go with them in this game.
New Orleans +7.5 at Miami----- Peja and West are still out, but Miami is not good, and 7.5 points is a big spread. Go with New Orleans.
Seattle +5 at Memphis----- Gasol should get 20+ minutes for the first time this season. Seattle has no one to stop him. Seattle's wide open defense should also give plenty of easy opportunities to all the inexperienced players on Memphis. This is a good way to get a player going.
Washington -2 at Denver----- No Carmelo=no win. Washington just shat on the Lakers with 60 by Arenas. Denver is missing it's two best scorers, actually the highest scoring tandem in the NBA. Earl Boykins and Andre Miller are the only players left on this team who can create a shot. Boykins is the only one left who has an above average jump shot. This one has blowout written all over it.
Dallas -3 at Sacramento------ Sacramento has been playing better recently. They beat Utah in Salt Lake City and they played pretty close with Phoenix. Isn't it great when you can call the Suns the hottest team in the NBA? Dallas has been streaky. They beat Sac by 19 at home earlier this season, but Sacramento has been good at home (7-5). They played Orlando and Miami close in their most recent home loss, and whooped Atlanta in their last home game before losing to the Suns. I like Sacramento here.
Utah -5 at New York----- Well the Knicks will be without Jared Jeffries, Nate Robinson, Mardy Collins, Jerome James (suspensions). They are also likely to be without Steve Francis and Quentin Richardson (injuries). That leaves Jamal Crawford and Marbury as the only two backcourt players. We will likely see some Renaldo Balkman at the two, and a lot of David Lee and Malik Rose at the 3. Utah is coming off a convincing victory at Indiana (who has already beaten New York twice this season). The Knicks are coming off of 2 straight blowouts. But this could an identity forming moment for the Knicks. I will go with them in this game.
New Orleans +7.5 at Miami----- Peja and West are still out, but Miami is not good, and 7.5 points is a big spread. Go with New Orleans.
Seattle +5 at Memphis----- Gasol should get 20+ minutes for the first time this season. Seattle has no one to stop him. Seattle's wide open defense should also give plenty of easy opportunities to all the inexperienced players on Memphis. This is a good way to get a player going.
Washington -2 at Denver----- No Carmelo=no win. Washington just shat on the Lakers with 60 by Arenas. Denver is missing it's two best scorers, actually the highest scoring tandem in the NBA. Earl Boykins and Andre Miller are the only players left on this team who can create a shot. Boykins is the only one left who has an above average jump shot. This one has blowout written all over it.
Dallas -3 at Sacramento------ Sacramento has been playing better recently. They beat Utah in Salt Lake City and they played pretty close with Phoenix. Isn't it great when you can call the Suns the hottest team in the NBA? Dallas has been streaky. They beat Sac by 19 at home earlier this season, but Sacramento has been good at home (7-5). They played Orlando and Miami close in their most recent home loss, and whooped Atlanta in their last home game before losing to the Suns. I like Sacramento here.
Sunday, December 17, 2006
Sunday Picks
Golden State at Toronto (no spread)----- Golden State is 1-7 on the road. Toronto keeps winning without Bosh for some reason. I find this fact very confusing. I'd really like to pick against Toronto without Bosh, but they do have some other talent, and as Golden State can't win on the road and is generally very inconsistent, I have to pick Raptors. Blah.
Utah +2 1/2 at Indiana----- I'm kind of surprised here that Utah isn't favored. Is there something I'm missing? Ah, now I see: Indiana is 8-2 at home. Utah is 6-4 on the road with losses to Minnesota, New Jersey, the Lakers and Golden State. I can't see them losing two in a row, something that has only happened once so far this season, by losing to a team with a limping all-star and a psycho/team-killer starting at shooting guard. I don't care if they're 8-2 at home. Give me Utah.
Houston at Clippers----- This lethargic Clipper team won't do much to tire out Yao. They aren't athletic or fast enough. They are hankering for a win though. The Clippers are still 9-4 at home. And the Rockets still suck without T-Mac. Unless Bonzi breaks out, I gotta go with the Clips here. I feel like maybe there will be spread here and they just haven't posted it yet, so I'm gonna pick Clips by 4.
Seattle +6 1/2 at Detroit----- Once again since Rasheed is hurt I'm tempted to take Seattle. I took Seattle last time and they burned me. I'm gonna look at this rationally - what does Rasheed do for Detroit? He is an inside presence, rebounder and pretty much the only shot blocker left on their team, he is also their best low post player. How do teams exploit Seattle? They punish their crap front line. How does Seattle score? From the perimeter or through penetration, no post play. Rasheed won't be protecting the basket, so look for Rashard Lewis and Luke Ridnour to get in the paint. Damien Wilkins is also a good slasher. There, I've convinced myself. I think Seattle covers on this one.
Wizards +4 1/2 at Lakers----- Well those point spread people are sure over Lamar Odom's injury. Wizards have two road wins: one at New York and at post-AI Philly. Not too impressive. Kobe and the Lakers have hardly lost a step without Odom and everyone on Washington (not just the well documented Arenas), plays worse on the road. The Wiz's recent wins at NY and Philly give me no reason to believe that Kwame Brown won't use his small hands (some people's explanation for why he hasn't become a great player) to swat his old team 2,671 miles back to Washington DC (at least according to Google Maps). Kwame. KWAME. KWAME!!!
Utah +2 1/2 at Indiana----- I'm kind of surprised here that Utah isn't favored. Is there something I'm missing? Ah, now I see: Indiana is 8-2 at home. Utah is 6-4 on the road with losses to Minnesota, New Jersey, the Lakers and Golden State. I can't see them losing two in a row, something that has only happened once so far this season, by losing to a team with a limping all-star and a psycho/team-killer starting at shooting guard. I don't care if they're 8-2 at home. Give me Utah.
Houston at Clippers----- This lethargic Clipper team won't do much to tire out Yao. They aren't athletic or fast enough. They are hankering for a win though. The Clippers are still 9-4 at home. And the Rockets still suck without T-Mac. Unless Bonzi breaks out, I gotta go with the Clips here. I feel like maybe there will be spread here and they just haven't posted it yet, so I'm gonna pick Clips by 4.
Seattle +6 1/2 at Detroit----- Once again since Rasheed is hurt I'm tempted to take Seattle. I took Seattle last time and they burned me. I'm gonna look at this rationally - what does Rasheed do for Detroit? He is an inside presence, rebounder and pretty much the only shot blocker left on their team, he is also their best low post player. How do teams exploit Seattle? They punish their crap front line. How does Seattle score? From the perimeter or through penetration, no post play. Rasheed won't be protecting the basket, so look for Rashard Lewis and Luke Ridnour to get in the paint. Damien Wilkins is also a good slasher. There, I've convinced myself. I think Seattle covers on this one.
Wizards +4 1/2 at Lakers----- Well those point spread people are sure over Lamar Odom's injury. Wizards have two road wins: one at New York and at post-AI Philly. Not too impressive. Kobe and the Lakers have hardly lost a step without Odom and everyone on Washington (not just the well documented Arenas), plays worse on the road. The Wiz's recent wins at NY and Philly give me no reason to believe that Kwame Brown won't use his small hands (some people's explanation for why he hasn't become a great player) to swat his old team 2,671 miles back to Washington DC (at least according to Google Maps). Kwame. KWAME. KWAME!!!
Saturday, December 16, 2006
okay, today's picks are in:
I'm gonna bold my picks in case you don't care to read through the blurb in search of who I pick.
Chicago -4 pts at Atlanta----- Word on the street is that Joe Johnson will play tonight. Josh Smith has been on a tear, Claxton had a very nice game last night. Yes, Chicago has now won 10 of their last 11, but as I noted before, none of those teams were over .500 at the time (Indiana is now at 13 and 12). Atlanta hasn't been the Bulls since the 03-04 season. Crazy. I have to go with Chicago here, even with the Claxton/Johnson/Smith momentum going for Atlanta. It's a tight one though.
Boston +2 1/2 at the Bobcats----- Yesterday against Denver Tony Allen scored 30 points on 11/13 scoring. Al Jefferson also contributed 28 on 13/19 shooting. They managed to gut out a 5 point comeback win against a slightly above average Denver team. Now they are on the road at Charlotte after playing last night at home. Let's just say the AI trade rumor adrenalin will wear off soon. When the buzz is gone you play worse than before the buzz came on. Those players that were lazy before (al jefferson) will revert to being lazy again. Those players that were morons before (tony allen) will revert to being morons again. Coaches that sabotage their team (Doc Rivers) will eventually succeed in causing their team to lose. Sean May is on a tear and Charlotte is coming off a 10 point win over the Grant Hill-less Magic. Brevin Knight, the glue guy for this team, returned for the victory and played 33 minutes. Look for lots of steals off of bad passes by jefferson and Allen. Knight and Gerald Wallace are two of the best thieves in the league. I go with the Bobcats here.
Cleveland -2 at Orlando----- Orlando has been weak, Cleveland is at full strength and they dominated in their last game. Orlando still hasn't proven that in the end they will be more than a 45 win team. The Cavs have the track record and it is correct to read the Magic's recent struggles as, not a little blip, but a return to the average team that they are. Dwight Howard is a dominating player at times, but it's clear that particularly on offense, he doesn't have the skills yet to bring it every night. They are also missing the underrated Hedo Turkoglu. Go with Cleveland.
Denver -5 at New York----- Last night was not a good night for the Knicks. Not only did they lose by 16, but Eddy Curry only managed 10 points on 3/6 shooting with 5 turnovers, Quentin Richardson left after 8 minutes with back spasms and did not return (he's questionable for tonight), Marbury bruised his knee and sat the last 24 minutes. The Knicks were breaking down defensively all over the place. They are at home though and the did win in Denver earlier this season. They are also on a pattern of alternating wins and losses over their last 7 games. Now Jared Jeffries will probably start at SF (assuming Q is out) and will cover carmelo anthony. Last year Carmelo averaged only 18.5pts against Jeffries and the Wiz. They won both games and Anthony shot decently, but holding carmelo to 8 pts below his average is notable. As marbury has been the one unselfishly and patiently getting Curry the ball, and he may not get that many minutes, and as the knicks needed some serious late game heroics by Crawford to win the last game at Denver, I have to pick the Nuggets to win and cover.
Memphis +6 at Miami----- Pau Gasol came back last night and in 17 minutes scored 4 points on 1/5 shooting. They will probably keep his minutes at or below that number since it's a back to back. Wade has been out two games because he had his wisdom teeth taken out, and he's expected back tonight. Gasol will be more of a hindrance than a help until he gets his rhythm back. Six points is a big spread for a team missing one of its only two good players, but Memphis is probably the least dangerous team in the league. I have to go with Miami here.
Philly +16.5 at San Antonio----- The spreads keep getting bigger and bigger here for Philly. They managed to cover in their last game against Dallas. The Spurs dismantled the Hornets in their last game, winning by 26 points on the road. The question to ask is how long does the momentum from the Spurs' comeback domination of Minnesota two games ago last? It's hard to stay focused when you play two consecutive bad teams. I'm gonna have to say the spurs take a vacation for about 30 of the 48 minutes and that they go home with a 10 point victory.
Detroit -1 1/2 at New Jersey----- The nets lost to a Raptors team without Chris Bosh last night. The Raptors didn't even play that well, the nets just couldn't hit shots. It was a pretty sad effort. That being said, Detroit will be without their engine, Rasheed Wallace, who is likely to miss this game and the next with an ankle injury. The nets will be without Richard Jefferson. I think Rasheed may be the second most important player to the pistons after Chauncey and the Pistons bench is crap. Unless New Jersey can't make a shot again, they should win this one.
Dallas -8 at New Orleans----- Well Dallas hasn't lost to the Hornets in 18 games. The longest streak in the NBA. Not that that means much since the hornets have changed a lot in the last 7 years. Unfortunately like half their team is hurt. That means Dallas (6-4 on the road) should destroy the hornets again and extend their streak to 19.
Minnesota -1 1/2 at Milwaukee----- Two weeks ago the bucks would have definitely been favored in this game. Minnesota, like Boston, has been rejuvenated by the AI trade buzz. The bucks are back at full strength and villanueva has had enough time that he should be close to 100%. Look for the AI trade adrenalin to dissipate a bit and watch the Bucks win this game against a Minnesota team that really sucks and has no future.
Phoenix -3 at Sacramento----- Sacramento is coming off a big win at Utah, but the continued struggles of Kevin Martin have to be a concern. After scoring 20 or more points in 10 of Sac's first 12 games, Martin has only scored 20 in 2 of Sac's last 9 games. He has had several stinkers starting with a 1/8 performance at the clippers on nov 28, then 3/15 at Miami on dec 7 and 2/12 last night at Utah. Is this guy the next reggie miller or not? He wasn't that impressive in his last game against Phoenix when the Kings were blown out by 25 points. With Martin and Bibby shooting poorly, this team is going to have a lot of trouble scoring, and against Phoenix that is a formula for getting blown out in a monumental, nuclear fashion. Eric Musselman has got the team playing some D (evidenced against Utah), but against Phoenix D can't win you the game. They are going to score and you are going to have to keep up. I think Phoenix goes in to Sacramento tonight and blows them out of the water, perhaps by 30 or more.
Chicago -4 pts at Atlanta----- Word on the street is that Joe Johnson will play tonight. Josh Smith has been on a tear, Claxton had a very nice game last night. Yes, Chicago has now won 10 of their last 11, but as I noted before, none of those teams were over .500 at the time (Indiana is now at 13 and 12). Atlanta hasn't been the Bulls since the 03-04 season. Crazy. I have to go with Chicago here, even with the Claxton/Johnson/Smith momentum going for Atlanta. It's a tight one though.
Boston +2 1/2 at the Bobcats----- Yesterday against Denver Tony Allen scored 30 points on 11/13 scoring. Al Jefferson also contributed 28 on 13/19 shooting. They managed to gut out a 5 point comeback win against a slightly above average Denver team. Now they are on the road at Charlotte after playing last night at home. Let's just say the AI trade rumor adrenalin will wear off soon. When the buzz is gone you play worse than before the buzz came on. Those players that were lazy before (al jefferson) will revert to being lazy again. Those players that were morons before (tony allen) will revert to being morons again. Coaches that sabotage their team (Doc Rivers) will eventually succeed in causing their team to lose. Sean May is on a tear and Charlotte is coming off a 10 point win over the Grant Hill-less Magic. Brevin Knight, the glue guy for this team, returned for the victory and played 33 minutes. Look for lots of steals off of bad passes by jefferson and Allen. Knight and Gerald Wallace are two of the best thieves in the league. I go with the Bobcats here.
Cleveland -2 at Orlando----- Orlando has been weak, Cleveland is at full strength and they dominated in their last game. Orlando still hasn't proven that in the end they will be more than a 45 win team. The Cavs have the track record and it is correct to read the Magic's recent struggles as, not a little blip, but a return to the average team that they are. Dwight Howard is a dominating player at times, but it's clear that particularly on offense, he doesn't have the skills yet to bring it every night. They are also missing the underrated Hedo Turkoglu. Go with Cleveland.
Denver -5 at New York----- Last night was not a good night for the Knicks. Not only did they lose by 16, but Eddy Curry only managed 10 points on 3/6 shooting with 5 turnovers, Quentin Richardson left after 8 minutes with back spasms and did not return (he's questionable for tonight), Marbury bruised his knee and sat the last 24 minutes. The Knicks were breaking down defensively all over the place. They are at home though and the did win in Denver earlier this season. They are also on a pattern of alternating wins and losses over their last 7 games. Now Jared Jeffries will probably start at SF (assuming Q is out) and will cover carmelo anthony. Last year Carmelo averaged only 18.5pts against Jeffries and the Wiz. They won both games and Anthony shot decently, but holding carmelo to 8 pts below his average is notable. As marbury has been the one unselfishly and patiently getting Curry the ball, and he may not get that many minutes, and as the knicks needed some serious late game heroics by Crawford to win the last game at Denver, I have to pick the Nuggets to win and cover.
Memphis +6 at Miami----- Pau Gasol came back last night and in 17 minutes scored 4 points on 1/5 shooting. They will probably keep his minutes at or below that number since it's a back to back. Wade has been out two games because he had his wisdom teeth taken out, and he's expected back tonight. Gasol will be more of a hindrance than a help until he gets his rhythm back. Six points is a big spread for a team missing one of its only two good players, but Memphis is probably the least dangerous team in the league. I have to go with Miami here.
Philly +16.5 at San Antonio----- The spreads keep getting bigger and bigger here for Philly. They managed to cover in their last game against Dallas. The Spurs dismantled the Hornets in their last game, winning by 26 points on the road. The question to ask is how long does the momentum from the Spurs' comeback domination of Minnesota two games ago last? It's hard to stay focused when you play two consecutive bad teams. I'm gonna have to say the spurs take a vacation for about 30 of the 48 minutes and that they go home with a 10 point victory.
Detroit -1 1/2 at New Jersey----- The nets lost to a Raptors team without Chris Bosh last night. The Raptors didn't even play that well, the nets just couldn't hit shots. It was a pretty sad effort. That being said, Detroit will be without their engine, Rasheed Wallace, who is likely to miss this game and the next with an ankle injury. The nets will be without Richard Jefferson. I think Rasheed may be the second most important player to the pistons after Chauncey and the Pistons bench is crap. Unless New Jersey can't make a shot again, they should win this one.
Dallas -8 at New Orleans----- Well Dallas hasn't lost to the Hornets in 18 games. The longest streak in the NBA. Not that that means much since the hornets have changed a lot in the last 7 years. Unfortunately like half their team is hurt. That means Dallas (6-4 on the road) should destroy the hornets again and extend their streak to 19.
Minnesota -1 1/2 at Milwaukee----- Two weeks ago the bucks would have definitely been favored in this game. Minnesota, like Boston, has been rejuvenated by the AI trade buzz. The bucks are back at full strength and villanueva has had enough time that he should be close to 100%. Look for the AI trade adrenalin to dissipate a bit and watch the Bucks win this game against a Minnesota team that really sucks and has no future.
Phoenix -3 at Sacramento----- Sacramento is coming off a big win at Utah, but the continued struggles of Kevin Martin have to be a concern. After scoring 20 or more points in 10 of Sac's first 12 games, Martin has only scored 20 in 2 of Sac's last 9 games. He has had several stinkers starting with a 1/8 performance at the clippers on nov 28, then 3/15 at Miami on dec 7 and 2/12 last night at Utah. Is this guy the next reggie miller or not? He wasn't that impressive in his last game against Phoenix when the Kings were blown out by 25 points. With Martin and Bibby shooting poorly, this team is going to have a lot of trouble scoring, and against Phoenix that is a formula for getting blown out in a monumental, nuclear fashion. Eric Musselman has got the team playing some D (evidenced against Utah), but against Phoenix D can't win you the game. They are going to score and you are going to have to keep up. I think Phoenix goes in to Sacramento tonight and blows them out of the water, perhaps by 30 or more.
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