NEW TONIGHT:
1) I will institute the policy of using paragraphs in my picks and pick recaps!
2) I will not talk about games that bored me or teams about whom I feel I have adequately vociferated (shout out to Walt Clyde Frazier) my opinions.
I know things have been changing a lot over here lately, what with me bolding my winning picks, using a picture. Well, I'll just have to hope that my vast readership is able to adapt well to change and is equipped with a scroll wheel.
Stat of the night: New York beats Detroit despite the fact that Detroit had 36 more field goal attempts.
PICKS RECAP
My rights:
Washington beats Charlotte: Gerald Wallace had a monster game (40 points, 14 rebounds, 6 steals, 4 blocks) and kept Charlotte in this game. Many people have questioned whether Wallace's big concussion-inducing fall early in the season had permanently affected his all out style of play, making him less aggressively pursue shot blocks (last year he averaged 2.1 bpg, this year only .6). After 9 straight games without a block, and 19 straight with no more than 1 block in a game, Wallace has shown signs that the scar wasn't permanent. He's blocked a shot in each of his last 6 games and had multiple blocks in 3 of those games. When he stays healthy, Wallace is a big time player. If he had put up the same #s he did last year on a good team, he probably would have made the all-star team.
It's too bad that Bobcats ownership isn't committed to winning, because they have a nice young group and are only a piece or two away from being a competitive team. Not only are they below the cap, but their total salary is lower than the league minimum. Their total salary is about 9 million lower than the next lowest team. They could easily have played the role of facilitator in the Iverson trade, and had their choice of role players with middle salaries, without giving up a thing (Maggette, Troy Murphy, I'm sure if they had investigated there would have been even more options).
Word is that they are losing money (they recently laid off employees and dropped ownership of the WNBA's Sting) and they believe the best way to not lose money is to be tightwads. No doubt, particularly in a small market, it's important to spend your $ carefully, and I'm no expert on building a financially robust NBA franchise, but if I turn to the rest of the NBA for evidence, refusing to even give your team an opportunity to be successful is not the key to winning over fans or being a profitable team. There are plenty of other small market teams, but the only team below the salary cap (different from the luxury tax threshold) is the Atlanta Hawks, and that is only because their ownership situation is in disarray. You can't tell me that Charlotte is a unique city in terms of what the best strategy for making money off of an NBA team is. Hell, all you have to do is look back to when the Hornets were in Charlotte. They had big stars in Alonzo Mourning, Larry Johnson, Vlade Divac, Glenn Rice. When they were winning, Charlotte was hopping with crazy Hornets fans. It wasn't until George Shinn traded away LJ, Mourning and all the rest of their popular guys that the fans turned away.
So far Charlotte's strategy has been to draft local products and to draft guys that they think have fan appeal. Coincidentally, Charlotte came into the league at a time when Euro hype was at an all time high, and the "go to college" rule wasn't in effect yet, so many solid college players were overlooked, and Charlotte stole Sean May with the 13th pick. They also lucked out with the underrated Brevin Knight. Knight came to the Bobcats after bouncing around with 4 different teams the previous year. In his last 6 years as a pro he had averaged 53 1/2 games per season. In his previous four seasons, his highest ppg was 7 and his highest assist/game was 5.9. In his first two years in Charlotte he is averaging 11 points and 9 assists. Last year was the first time he'd averaged over 30mpg since his second season. This guy came out of nowhere and was a real gift. Not only that, they stole a gem from Sac in the expansion draft in G. Wallace , and got a solid backup big in Primoz Brezec from Indy.
They already screwed up by drafting Morrison, a guy that was way overhyped and who I don't have a hard time imagining fighting to stay in the league when his rookie contract is up. This was a weak draft so they didn't miss too much, but Roy, Foye or Gay would have been much better selections. And don't tell me Charlotte didn't know this. They chose morrison in another ploy to try to get fans to the games. I even have sneaking suspicion that adding Michael Jordan as an advisor, or whatever he is, was just another ploy to try to generate interest in this team. He doesn't seem to be doing anything.
What am I getting at here? Opportunity is knocking for Charlotte. These guys are in a situation where if they go out and spend 20 million next summer, upgrade their bench and their shooting guard spot, move felton so we can stop pretending Knight isn't the leader of this team, stop playing morrison 35mpg, and they, still well below the luxury tax, are probably a dangerous 4 or 5 seed in the east.
Fans will show up then.
Cleveland beats Atlanta: (see? I'm not gonna talk about this one)
New York beats Detroit in Triple OT: I didn't catch the Phoenix/Nets game so for me this was by far the most exciting game I've watched all year. There were about 5 different instances where I was sure the game was over:
1) New York up 3 with 9 seconds left in regulation (Delfino hits a 3)
2) Detroit up 3 with 25 remaining in the first overtime (Billups fouls Marbury on a 3).
3) Marbury fouls out with 2:06 left in the second OT and the knicks down 3
4) Detroit up 4 with 18 seconds left in the second OT, then by 1 with Billups going to the line for tw FTs (billups missed 1 of 2, Frye makes a buzzer beater to tie).
5) New York up 6 with 13 seconds left in the 3rd OT (this time I was right).
This game could easily have ended up in a 4th overtime if Hamilton hadn't been dead tired. He was 0-4 in the third OT.
What made this game veer a little away from the historic and towards the absurd was the number of EASY opportunities the teams, particularly Detroit, screwed up in this game:
1) The Knicks had a foul to give on Detroit's possession of regulation. They had ample opportunity to give it and make Detroit try to get a 3 with even less time. No one did.
2) Even if he Knicks chose not to foul, why wasn't David Lee up on Delfino? The pistons needed a three. There was no need for him to step away.
3) Billups blatantly fouls Marbury on a 28 foot three point attempt, then goes down the court and instead of getting hte ball to the red hot rip hamilton, decides to take a 28 footer of his own, even though he had been cold all night. Billups clearly wanted to make up for his blunder on the previous play by being a hero. I thought the Pistons were ego-less.
4) Mohammed caught Billups' missed three and missed an easy layup.
5) Detroit missed two dunks in this game and Mohammed missed countless chip ins and layups off of offensive rebounds. There were sequences where the Pistons got 3 straight offensive rebounds and still failed to convert.
Despite the mistakes, this game was still really exciting. It was close the whole way - no team led by more than 5 after the halftime until the Knicks went up 6 in the 3rd OT. The Knicks are one game behind the Raps for first in the Atlantic, but they have to go on a West coast trip, so I don't know that they'll be taking the lead for a bit.
One last thing to note is that the Knicks beat Phoenix last year in triple-OT and went on to win six straight games.
Milwaukee beats Memphis: Bucks are good.
Chicago beats Miami: Wade goes down. Doesn't sound too bad (X-Rays negative). he stayed in at first, then left for precautionary reasons. The Bulls are confirming that their recent hot streak was something of a mirage. They have lost to the T-wolves, Knicks, and now only managed a 6 point win against the heat. They were playing against guys who would ride the pine on any healthy and competitive team. They were also playing the team that they beat by 40 on opening night. Go figure.
Portland beats New Orleans: I'm shedding a tear for the poor hornets.
Sacramento beats Philadelphia: Andre Miller is already frustrated. Why else would he attempt 19 shots. DOn't worry Andre, Larry Brown should be wise enough to advise his team to move you.
My wrongs:
Minnesota loses to Toronto: Couldn't minny have scored 1 more point so they woulda covered? Toronto's tough at home. Mo-Pete gets a DNP? This is killing my fantasy teams too. We have confirmation, what I conceded could be true appears to be the reality over in Toronto: TJ Ford is good.
"But Max, why weren't the more talented Bucks more successful when Ford was with them?"
"Brain, if you weren't such a moron you would understand that the dude had just missed 108 straight games with a bruised spinal cord. Why don't you do your job and think."
"But he showed no signs of being held back by the injury last year and he didn't impress too much his rookie season."
"Hmm your right. Maybe just Brian Colangelo's presence as a GM makes point guards like five times as good as they used to be."
"Now you're thinking, Max."
Blah. Minny sucks. Trade Garnett.
Lakers beat Orlando: There's a reason I rated my confidence in my pick as 1/5. I didn't trust that Kobe wouldn't get his act together. He actually didn't play all that well, but Orlando really sucks. Where has their mojo gone? Hedo played.
Houston whoops New Jersey: I am at that point where I am pretty much ready to count the Nets out. A team that is ready for a turnaround doesn't mail in a game against a team missing it's best player, especially when they are coming off a hard loss. No, they channel that frustration and abuse the Rockets. The Nets played tired, but the Rockets were the ones who should have - T-Mac hadn't played in weeks, and Bonzi is still out of shape. The Rockets, outside of Battier, played a bad game. They turned the ball over 24 times. Yet they still blew out the Nets. I think the Nets would have lost to a CBA team last night (especially if that CBA team featured Matt Barnes).
Clips swat Boston: Wally and Perkins were back. Didn't matter. Al Jefferson falling back to earth? Brand has to shoot 11/15 just to get to 25 points? Clips still are in trouble.
Last night: 7-4
Overall: 42-40 (woo hoo, I've covered an NBA season's worth of games! Hopefully I've also predicted the Knicks' record!)
Pick of the night: 2-1
Showing posts with label Nets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nets. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
Picks for 12/27
Washington -5 at Charlotte----- Confidence factor: 4 Sean May was supposed to be out for 1-2 weeks with his ankle sprain. It's been 8 days. He hasn't exactly been a trooper in terms of coming back early from injuries though, so I'd count him out. No word that Knight will be back, and since he didn't play last night, I'll assume he's out. Washington, winners of 5 out of 6 and 8 of 10, is the easy pick here.
Cleveland -5 1/2 at Atlanta----- Confidence factor: 2 Josh Smith is out indefinitely for Atlanta after having hernia surgery. Lue and Claxton both missed last game and although the AP preview claims they should play, I will believe Claxton is playing when I see him on the floor. Cleveland is having trouble on the road, but the only player that Cleveland has to think much about on defense is Joe Johnson. As long as Cleveland doesn't absolutely bomb on this game they should come away with a W. Josh Smith has missed 6 games in his 3 year career (impressive eh?), and the only one Atlanta won was in November '04, the 7th game of Smith's rookie season. The closest of the other 5 was a 7 point loss two games after that win. Even though I hate to pick an underperforming team, I have to go Cleveland.
Minnesota +2 at Toronto----- Confidence factor: 4 Is my disdain for what Minnesota's imprisonment of KG biasing my judgement? They blew a 24 point lead last game, but still won and beat the cover by a point. Okay, I'll give Minnesota some credit. This team is playing defense. Foye looks good. Every time they find him minutes he puts up decent numbers, including a game winner the other night against Chicago. One storyline to watch here is it is Mike James' first game back in Toronto. Is he one of those guys who loves to stick it to old teams? Last year with Toronto he put up 19 and 30 against Houston. Not really noteworthy, although he had his career year in Toronto, not Houston. I think I'll pick Minnesota for perhaps the first time this year? I still believe that it is a travesty that KG is stuck on this team. One more time folks,
Lakers +2 at Orlando----- Confidence factor: 1 Kobe was sick last game. That's why he let Wade torch him on the first ABC game of the year. I see no reason why he won't still be sick one night later. The magic have had serious trouble scoring and the Lakers have a dominating history against Orlando. Of course the lakers have a dominating history in general. Then again, the lakers haven't exactly proven that they can be successful without Odom (3-4 so far). I'll take Orlando.
Houston +6 1/2 at New Jersey----- Confidence factor: 3 T-Mac comes back just in time for a back to back. Hopefully that doesn't trigger his back going back to the back it was two weeks ago. That would be a short comeback. Are things finally truly coming apart for the Nets? This is now their second heartbreaking (backbreaking?) loss of the season to a premiere team. That nets didn't wig out on the officials in that first loss. They did not hesitate to do so after losing to detroit (Kidd even criticized an official by name). There will be fines. As much as I'd like to just write the Nets off, I think they've gone about as low as a team with this kind of talent can go. I think they will start their turnaround tonight. That being said, 6 1/2 points??? I know Houston has no Yao, but T-Mac is playing and they only lost by 5 to Indiana. Bonzi is playing more minutes every game. Both Bonzi and T-Mac have reason to be tired on the second night of a back to back, and the Nets are discovering that Josh Boone can be a contributor. I go with the Nets to cover, despite the fact taht I find the spread rather large.
Detroit -5 1/2 at New York----- Confidence factor: 3 Knicks get Jared Jeffries back tonight and have had 2 days to rest their weary bones. Detroit is on the second night of a back to back. They were at home in Detroit last night. Detroit does match up pretty well with New York and the Knicks have a tough time against disciplined teams, but I think that they will come out and play competitive basketball. They may not win, but I think they'll cover.
Milwaukee +1 at Memphis----- Confidence factor: 3 Well games start soon, so I'm going to have to rush through these last 5 games. Bucks are hot. It's funny, the bucks have two second round picks and an undrafted guy starting at the 1, 2 and 3, and they might be the most prolific scoring backcourt trio in the league. Memphis, even with Gasol doing his thing, lacks the cohesion to stop these guys from going off.
Miami +5 1/2 at Chicago----- **PICK OF THE NIGHT** Confidence factor: 4 Wade has had a day to recovery from his performance on christmas. Chicago is on the second night of a back to back. It don't matter. The bulls annihilated the heat on opening night. They gave miami a real hard time last year in the playoffs. Hinrich has done an excellent job defending wade. The bulls also have Duhon and sepholosha to throw at him. Go Chicago here.
New Orleans +8 at Portland----- Confidence factor: 2 Paul is out 2 games. Portland has been very consistent this year and I think it's about time Roy puts his name out on ESPN with a big game, and jumps ahead of.... hmmm.... well, jumps ahead in the ROY race. New Orleans players must be feeling exasperated.
Philadelphia +8 at Sacramento----- Confidence factor: 3 Does the Artest trade controversy fuel sac's fire? Does it matter? Philly seems intent on losing as much as they can this season, and so they should. They aren't going anywhere and this draft is deep. Rodney Carney is not a good player now. I understand he put up some points in last game, but most of them came after the game was out of hand. Carney doesn't do the little things. Why do you think Craphead Barnes went off? No one was covering him.
Boston +7 1/2 at Los Angeles----- Confidence factor: 3
Cleveland -5 1/2 at Atlanta----- Confidence factor: 2 Josh Smith is out indefinitely for Atlanta after having hernia surgery. Lue and Claxton both missed last game and although the AP preview claims they should play, I will believe Claxton is playing when I see him on the floor. Cleveland is having trouble on the road, but the only player that Cleveland has to think much about on defense is Joe Johnson. As long as Cleveland doesn't absolutely bomb on this game they should come away with a W. Josh Smith has missed 6 games in his 3 year career (impressive eh?), and the only one Atlanta won was in November '04, the 7th game of Smith's rookie season. The closest of the other 5 was a 7 point loss two games after that win. Even though I hate to pick an underperforming team, I have to go Cleveland.
Minnesota +2 at Toronto----- Confidence factor: 4 Is my disdain for what Minnesota's imprisonment of KG biasing my judgement? They blew a 24 point lead last game, but still won and beat the cover by a point. Okay, I'll give Minnesota some credit. This team is playing defense. Foye looks good. Every time they find him minutes he puts up decent numbers, including a game winner the other night against Chicago. One storyline to watch here is it is Mike James' first game back in Toronto. Is he one of those guys who loves to stick it to old teams? Last year with Toronto he put up 19 and 30 against Houston. Not really noteworthy, although he had his career year in Toronto, not Houston. I think I'll pick Minnesota for perhaps the first time this year? I still believe that it is a travesty that KG is stuck on this team. One more time folks,
TRADE KG
.Lakers +2 at Orlando----- Confidence factor: 1 Kobe was sick last game. That's why he let Wade torch him on the first ABC game of the year. I see no reason why he won't still be sick one night later. The magic have had serious trouble scoring and the Lakers have a dominating history against Orlando. Of course the lakers have a dominating history in general. Then again, the lakers haven't exactly proven that they can be successful without Odom (3-4 so far). I'll take Orlando.
Houston +6 1/2 at New Jersey----- Confidence factor: 3 T-Mac comes back just in time for a back to back. Hopefully that doesn't trigger his back going back to the back it was two weeks ago. That would be a short comeback. Are things finally truly coming apart for the Nets? This is now their second heartbreaking (backbreaking?) loss of the season to a premiere team. That nets didn't wig out on the officials in that first loss. They did not hesitate to do so after losing to detroit (Kidd even criticized an official by name). There will be fines. As much as I'd like to just write the Nets off, I think they've gone about as low as a team with this kind of talent can go. I think they will start their turnaround tonight. That being said, 6 1/2 points??? I know Houston has no Yao, but T-Mac is playing and they only lost by 5 to Indiana. Bonzi is playing more minutes every game. Both Bonzi and T-Mac have reason to be tired on the second night of a back to back, and the Nets are discovering that Josh Boone can be a contributor. I go with the Nets to cover, despite the fact taht I find the spread rather large.
Detroit -5 1/2 at New York----- Confidence factor: 3 Knicks get Jared Jeffries back tonight and have had 2 days to rest their weary bones. Detroit is on the second night of a back to back. They were at home in Detroit last night. Detroit does match up pretty well with New York and the Knicks have a tough time against disciplined teams, but I think that they will come out and play competitive basketball. They may not win, but I think they'll cover.
Milwaukee +1 at Memphis----- Confidence factor: 3 Well games start soon, so I'm going to have to rush through these last 5 games. Bucks are hot. It's funny, the bucks have two second round picks and an undrafted guy starting at the 1, 2 and 3, and they might be the most prolific scoring backcourt trio in the league. Memphis, even with Gasol doing his thing, lacks the cohesion to stop these guys from going off.
Miami +5 1/2 at Chicago----- **PICK OF THE NIGHT** Confidence factor: 4 Wade has had a day to recovery from his performance on christmas. Chicago is on the second night of a back to back. It don't matter. The bulls annihilated the heat on opening night. They gave miami a real hard time last year in the playoffs. Hinrich has done an excellent job defending wade. The bulls also have Duhon and sepholosha to throw at him. Go Chicago here.
New Orleans +8 at Portland----- Confidence factor: 2 Paul is out 2 games. Portland has been very consistent this year and I think it's about time Roy puts his name out on ESPN with a big game, and jumps ahead of.... hmmm.... well, jumps ahead in the ROY race. New Orleans players must be feeling exasperated.
Philadelphia +8 at Sacramento----- Confidence factor: 3 Does the Artest trade controversy fuel sac's fire? Does it matter? Philly seems intent on losing as much as they can this season, and so they should. They aren't going anywhere and this draft is deep. Rodney Carney is not a good player now. I understand he put up some points in last game, but most of them came after the game was out of hand. Carney doesn't do the little things. Why do you think Craphead Barnes went off? No one was covering him.
Boston +7 1/2 at Los Angeles----- Confidence factor: 3
Clippers suck!
. Whew, that felt nice. Boston is very very young at this point, but they have a a couple of wise youngsters who should steady them enough against these clippers. Delonte West and Ryan Gomes are two guys whose influence on a team goes deeper than what you find in a box score.Tuesday, December 26, 2006
picks recap 12/26
My rights:
Washington beats Memphis: Wiz cover. Arenas has a nice game. Doesn't get to 50 points but is quite efficient. Wiz's entire "big three" played well.
Bucks beat the Spurs: Ginobili and Barry were out which makes this game a little less surprising. I'm not sure that Barry mattered, but Ginobili would have been some help. Redd did his thing. Like I said, he likes to abuse the Spurs and Pistons.
Utah beats Clippers: Clips are looking at acquiring Ron Artest. He'll never be a long term solution, but things can't get any worse than they are now. Maybe Billy Crystal can tell me what is happening at these Clipper games.
Seattle beats New Orleans: Ray Allen shot an extremely rare 4/8 from the free throw line. Fortunately he shot just fine on his other shots, including a big late 3 pointer with the shot clock running down and the Hornets making a late rally. The real story here is Chris Paul, who went down with an ankle injury in the first quarter. He's young and I don't think it was too bad, so I'm guessing he won't be out too long, but this team is sorry. Look for another favorite bench warmer of mine, Jannero Pargo, to get big minutes. Wow man, I don't know if I've ever seen a team as depleted as the Hornets are.
Denver beats Boston: Three guys had double digit rebounds for Denver: Nene, Najera and Evans. These guys are all bruisers - just the kind of enforcers you need to protect, rebound, set screens for AI and Carmelo. This win wasn't that impressive. The Nuggets won't be fantastic until they get their brawlers back, but I think this team could do some damage. Think '99 Knicks - the Knicks had Camby as well, and they had a bruiser in Kurt Thomas at PF. Sprewell and Houston did all the scoring. The Knicks didn't need a big post man because Sprewell and Houston were both dangerous scorers out of the post. They had Larry Johnson too, but he was not the focal point of their offense, and a big part of his value came from his willingness to play tough D and be the 3rd option on offense. The Knicks finished in the 8th seed in the lockout shortened season, and shocked the world by knocking out the #1 seed Miami heat and making a run all the way to the finals. I could see a similar scenario playing out here, with Denver finishing in the 6-8 seed range, and playing Dallas, San Antonio or Phoenix. Phoenix is tough, but I think the Nuggets could knock out the Spurs or Mavs (or both).
My wrongs:
Pistons beat New Jersey: Detroit didn't cover. They were up big early, nets came back, up big again in the 3rd and the Nets came back. The Nets can sense their season slipping away here. They lashed out at the officials after VC didn't get a foul call on his last second attempt. Even Rasheed admitted that in almost any other situation that woulda been a foul. I watched the replay and it was definitely a foul, but I've seen worse fouls go uncalled. Either way, a game isn't lost or won on one play, and the Nets had their fair share of favorable calls. Watch out for Josh Boone - Frank is realizing what I've been saying here. Boone played a career high 30 minutes and finished with 6 points and 12 rebounds. Also noteworthy is that Rasheed Wallace went nuts in the 1st quarter, scoring 16 of his 21 points, all before Boone came in. Why? Because Boone can move!
Minnesota beats Chicago: Chicago came back from a 24 point 3rd quarter deficit to tie this game with 7 seconds left. Randy Foye then came down and made a 6 footer with about 2 seconds left, and Nocioni missed for the Bulls in their final attempt. On a side note, let's get one thing straight: Luol Deng is not a future all-star. Okay, maybe he'll make the all-star team once or twice, but he is not that great of a player. He knows what his strengths are and plays to them, and he plays hard, but he doesn't do anything exceptionally well and he isn't that physically gifted. In fact, for a starting small forward he's a little slow. He's a good defender, but he is about as close to Scottie Pippen as Ben Gordon is to Jordan. The fact that he's a clean cut, and apparently good person -- An under control player who knows his role, doesn't make him any better of a basketball player. KG should have taken it easy on his future team. This loss may hurt their playoff seed.
Phoenix blows out Portland: Portland couldn't keep up. Phoenix jumped ahead early and Portland never got close.
Golden State blows out Philly: God, somebody get Matt Barnes back to the CBA. Not only did he destroy Philly, preventing them from any chance at covering, but he is on two of the teams I am facing in my fantasy basketball league. Seven three pointers and 89% fgs is a real pain in the ass to come back against. Baron Davis also had a nice game, and Rodney Carney scored a career high 25 points on 12/22 shooting. He also had a career high 8 rebounds, something that he had been doing very little of until last night.
My ????s:
Dallas beats Charlotte: Dallas won by 13 and that's what the spread was. Morrison shot 50%. Someone send him some sugar-free cookies so he can celebrate. I think this team could break the record for fewest wins in a season if they didn't have Knight or May.
Indy beats Houston: I should have finalized my pick in more certain terms. The spread ended up being 3 1/2 but I didn't realize that until it was two late, and my pick of Indy by 4 and later my update of maybe taking off a point or two, left this pick to ambiguous. T-Mac returned, started slow (1-7), finished 7/22 with 7 turnovers. Bonzi contributed 11 points and 6 rebounds in a season high 32 minutes. He's the key if this team wants to get through these injuries and still be in the playoff hunt.
Last night: 5-4-2(???)
Overall: 35-36 (we're dropping those two odd games)
Pick of the night: 1-1
Washington beats Memphis: Wiz cover. Arenas has a nice game. Doesn't get to 50 points but is quite efficient. Wiz's entire "big three" played well.
Bucks beat the Spurs: Ginobili and Barry were out which makes this game a little less surprising. I'm not sure that Barry mattered, but Ginobili would have been some help. Redd did his thing. Like I said, he likes to abuse the Spurs and Pistons.
Utah beats Clippers: Clips are looking at acquiring Ron Artest. He'll never be a long term solution, but things can't get any worse than they are now. Maybe Billy Crystal can tell me what is happening at these Clipper games.
Seattle beats New Orleans: Ray Allen shot an extremely rare 4/8 from the free throw line. Fortunately he shot just fine on his other shots, including a big late 3 pointer with the shot clock running down and the Hornets making a late rally. The real story here is Chris Paul, who went down with an ankle injury in the first quarter. He's young and I don't think it was too bad, so I'm guessing he won't be out too long, but this team is sorry. Look for another favorite bench warmer of mine, Jannero Pargo, to get big minutes. Wow man, I don't know if I've ever seen a team as depleted as the Hornets are.
Denver beats Boston: Three guys had double digit rebounds for Denver: Nene, Najera and Evans. These guys are all bruisers - just the kind of enforcers you need to protect, rebound, set screens for AI and Carmelo. This win wasn't that impressive. The Nuggets won't be fantastic until they get their brawlers back, but I think this team could do some damage. Think '99 Knicks - the Knicks had Camby as well, and they had a bruiser in Kurt Thomas at PF. Sprewell and Houston did all the scoring. The Knicks didn't need a big post man because Sprewell and Houston were both dangerous scorers out of the post. They had Larry Johnson too, but he was not the focal point of their offense, and a big part of his value came from his willingness to play tough D and be the 3rd option on offense. The Knicks finished in the 8th seed in the lockout shortened season, and shocked the world by knocking out the #1 seed Miami heat and making a run all the way to the finals. I could see a similar scenario playing out here, with Denver finishing in the 6-8 seed range, and playing Dallas, San Antonio or Phoenix. Phoenix is tough, but I think the Nuggets could knock out the Spurs or Mavs (or both).
Look, that's a two-armed hug! Latrell Sprewell had no problem getting along with Allan Houston. Can Carmelo and AI replicate their success?
My wrongs:
Pistons beat New Jersey: Detroit didn't cover. They were up big early, nets came back, up big again in the 3rd and the Nets came back. The Nets can sense their season slipping away here. They lashed out at the officials after VC didn't get a foul call on his last second attempt. Even Rasheed admitted that in almost any other situation that woulda been a foul. I watched the replay and it was definitely a foul, but I've seen worse fouls go uncalled. Either way, a game isn't lost or won on one play, and the Nets had their fair share of favorable calls. Watch out for Josh Boone - Frank is realizing what I've been saying here. Boone played a career high 30 minutes and finished with 6 points and 12 rebounds. Also noteworthy is that Rasheed Wallace went nuts in the 1st quarter, scoring 16 of his 21 points, all before Boone came in. Why? Because Boone can move!
Minnesota beats Chicago: Chicago came back from a 24 point 3rd quarter deficit to tie this game with 7 seconds left. Randy Foye then came down and made a 6 footer with about 2 seconds left, and Nocioni missed for the Bulls in their final attempt. On a side note, let's get one thing straight: Luol Deng is not a future all-star. Okay, maybe he'll make the all-star team once or twice, but he is not that great of a player. He knows what his strengths are and plays to them, and he plays hard, but he doesn't do anything exceptionally well and he isn't that physically gifted. In fact, for a starting small forward he's a little slow. He's a good defender, but he is about as close to Scottie Pippen as Ben Gordon is to Jordan. The fact that he's a clean cut, and apparently good person -- An under control player who knows his role, doesn't make him any better of a basketball player. KG should have taken it easy on his future team. This loss may hurt their playoff seed.
Phoenix blows out Portland: Portland couldn't keep up. Phoenix jumped ahead early and Portland never got close.
Golden State blows out Philly: God, somebody get Matt Barnes back to the CBA. Not only did he destroy Philly, preventing them from any chance at covering, but he is on two of the teams I am facing in my fantasy basketball league. Seven three pointers and 89% fgs is a real pain in the ass to come back against. Baron Davis also had a nice game, and Rodney Carney scored a career high 25 points on 12/22 shooting. He also had a career high 8 rebounds, something that he had been doing very little of until last night.
My ????s:
Dallas beats Charlotte: Dallas won by 13 and that's what the spread was. Morrison shot 50%. Someone send him some sugar-free cookies so he can celebrate. I think this team could break the record for fewest wins in a season if they didn't have Knight or May.
Indy beats Houston: I should have finalized my pick in more certain terms. The spread ended up being 3 1/2 but I didn't realize that until it was two late, and my pick of Indy by 4 and later my update of maybe taking off a point or two, left this pick to ambiguous. T-Mac returned, started slow (1-7), finished 7/22 with 7 turnovers. Bonzi contributed 11 points and 6 rebounds in a season high 32 minutes. He's the key if this team wants to get through these injuries and still be in the playoff hunt.
Last night: 5-4-2(???)
Overall: 35-36 (we're dropping those two odd games)
Pick of the night: 1-1
Saturday, December 23, 2006
picks tonight (12/23)
Okay starting tonight I'm adding two elements to my picks. First I'm going to give a confidence rating of 1 through 5 (5 meaning I'm quite confident in my pick). Second I am going to have a pick of the night. I will track my pick of the night record separately.
Timberwolves +4 1/2 at Indiana----- Confidence factor: 2. The first meeting of the year between these two teams. Indy has been looking good. KG and Ricky Davis sat in Minny's last game in Indiana and the Wolves lost by 12. Indy has had some solid wins in their recent streak of 4 wins in 5 games. I go with Indy here, but more out of disrespect for the Wolves than respect for the Pacers.
Orlando +7 1/2 at Cleveland----- Confidence factor: 3. Orlando is coming off of a home loss to GS, but as I said in my recap of that game, Baron Davis controlled that game. Orlando was helpless. GS also has many more tools than Cleveland does. If Cleveland wins this game it will be in a gritty and tight fought defensive battle.
New York +3 at Philadelphia----- Confidence factor: 4. Can't pick against New York after that convincing victory over Chicago, especially when Philly is playing its first game with Miller and Smith. Historically NY has given up big games to bad players like Willie Green. Andre Miller has also had some good success against the Knicks. I don't consider it out of the question that Philly pulls this one out, but if the Knicks play defense like they have in any of these last 3 games, they should easily dispose of the Sixers.
Atlanta +10 1/2 at Detroit----- Confidence factor: 4. Atlanta has struggled to finish games lately. They are at full strength and they only lost by 5 in their last visit to Detroit. In most of Detroit's losses you will find that big games from the opposition's post man led them to victory. Atlanta has no post presence to speak of. I also feel that Detroit is a team of streaks and they have really picked things up since they last met Atlanta.
Golden State +5 1/2 at Miami----- Confidence factor: 2. Golden State now has it's wild card in Baron Davis. Davis is hot. He's carried them in their recent road winning streak. J-Rich still ain't right, but they've got plenty of other talent. I'll go with the wild card here and say Davis stays hot. The heat have no chance if he does.
San Antonio -9 1/2 at New Orleans----- Confidence factor: 2. San Antonio is coming off of an embarrassing trampling at home against Houston. New Orleans also looked somewhat energized in their home victory against Memphis. I think the embarrassment motivates the spurs to a 10+ point victory.
Utah -4 at Memphis----- Confidence factor: 4. Okur has a bruised chest. Utah has been far from dominant on this road trip (2-2). The question I'm asking myself is, did Utah lose to Charlotte because Charlotte can only win against premiere teams, or was it just a poor performance? I'm not sure, but one thing I can say is that the Knicks have shown that they're performance against Utah wasn't a fluke, so that provides some relief for what could have been labeled an embarrassment for Utah. They also beat an Indiana team which has surrounded that loss with 4 wins. I think Utah wins this. If Okur sits, that's fine - Kirilenko gets to play PF where he is much more comfortable and Millsap steps in.
New Jersey +4 at Milwaukee----- **PICK OF THE NIGHT** Confidence factor: 5. The bucks are an inconsistent team. The Nets are without Krstic, but to me this is a good thing. This opens the door for more PT for Mikki Moore and Josh Boone. The Nets need athletic big men on the court, and Lawrence Frank's refusal to put these guys out there is quite annoying. Krstic is a decent low post guy, but he doesn't rebound and he doesn't block shots. Carter could turn out to be a better post player than Krstic and either way it will force the nets to run more. Look for a blowout.
Clippers +7 1/2 at Houston----- Confidence factor: 3. After the timberwolves the team that I find most annoying is the Clippers. Houston is coming off a big win at San Antonio, but they aren't an explosive streaky team. They just caught the spurs on an off night. The clippers just suck though. They are totally lost. You'd have to add 10 points to that spread for me to pick them.
Charlotte +10 1/2 at Chicago----- Confidence factor: 1. Charlotte doesn't get to be a king killer because the Knicks just dismantled Chicago last night. The Bulls haven't played Charlotte yet this season. Charlotte is a competitive with Knight in the lineup (only 1 15+ point loss). Unfortunately I don't know if Knight will play and he is unlikely to play much if he does. Chicago looked pretty bad against the Knicks. Can they recover in time for tonight's game? I have to take Charlotte here, just because it seems more likely than not that Knight will play.
Toronto +5 at Seattle----- Confidence factor: 3. Ray Allen is supposed to play tonight. He has sat 9 straight games so his minutes and effectiveness may be somewhat limited. He was also shooting pretty poorly before because of the foot injury, so maybe he's pain free and goes nuts. Either way I think TJ Ford will lead this mysteriously successful Toronto team to victory.
Timberwolves +4 1/2 at Indiana----- Confidence factor: 2. The first meeting of the year between these two teams. Indy has been looking good. KG and Ricky Davis sat in Minny's last game in Indiana and the Wolves lost by 12. Indy has had some solid wins in their recent streak of 4 wins in 5 games. I go with Indy here, but more out of disrespect for the Wolves than respect for the Pacers.
Orlando +7 1/2 at Cleveland----- Confidence factor: 3. Orlando is coming off of a home loss to GS, but as I said in my recap of that game, Baron Davis controlled that game. Orlando was helpless. GS also has many more tools than Cleveland does. If Cleveland wins this game it will be in a gritty and tight fought defensive battle.
New York +3 at Philadelphia----- Confidence factor: 4. Can't pick against New York after that convincing victory over Chicago, especially when Philly is playing its first game with Miller and Smith. Historically NY has given up big games to bad players like Willie Green. Andre Miller has also had some good success against the Knicks. I don't consider it out of the question that Philly pulls this one out, but if the Knicks play defense like they have in any of these last 3 games, they should easily dispose of the Sixers.
Atlanta +10 1/2 at Detroit----- Confidence factor: 4. Atlanta has struggled to finish games lately. They are at full strength and they only lost by 5 in their last visit to Detroit. In most of Detroit's losses you will find that big games from the opposition's post man led them to victory. Atlanta has no post presence to speak of. I also feel that Detroit is a team of streaks and they have really picked things up since they last met Atlanta.
Golden State +5 1/2 at Miami----- Confidence factor: 2. Golden State now has it's wild card in Baron Davis. Davis is hot. He's carried them in their recent road winning streak. J-Rich still ain't right, but they've got plenty of other talent. I'll go with the wild card here and say Davis stays hot. The heat have no chance if he does.
San Antonio -9 1/2 at New Orleans----- Confidence factor: 2. San Antonio is coming off of an embarrassing trampling at home against Houston. New Orleans also looked somewhat energized in their home victory against Memphis. I think the embarrassment motivates the spurs to a 10+ point victory.
Utah -4 at Memphis----- Confidence factor: 4. Okur has a bruised chest. Utah has been far from dominant on this road trip (2-2). The question I'm asking myself is, did Utah lose to Charlotte because Charlotte can only win against premiere teams, or was it just a poor performance? I'm not sure, but one thing I can say is that the Knicks have shown that they're performance against Utah wasn't a fluke, so that provides some relief for what could have been labeled an embarrassment for Utah. They also beat an Indiana team which has surrounded that loss with 4 wins. I think Utah wins this. If Okur sits, that's fine - Kirilenko gets to play PF where he is much more comfortable and Millsap steps in.
New Jersey +4 at Milwaukee----- **PICK OF THE NIGHT** Confidence factor: 5. The bucks are an inconsistent team. The Nets are without Krstic, but to me this is a good thing. This opens the door for more PT for Mikki Moore and Josh Boone. The Nets need athletic big men on the court, and Lawrence Frank's refusal to put these guys out there is quite annoying. Krstic is a decent low post guy, but he doesn't rebound and he doesn't block shots. Carter could turn out to be a better post player than Krstic and either way it will force the nets to run more. Look for a blowout.
Clippers +7 1/2 at Houston----- Confidence factor: 3. After the timberwolves the team that I find most annoying is the Clippers. Houston is coming off a big win at San Antonio, but they aren't an explosive streaky team. They just caught the spurs on an off night. The clippers just suck though. They are totally lost. You'd have to add 10 points to that spread for me to pick them.
Charlotte +10 1/2 at Chicago----- Confidence factor: 1. Charlotte doesn't get to be a king killer because the Knicks just dismantled Chicago last night. The Bulls haven't played Charlotte yet this season. Charlotte is a competitive with Knight in the lineup (only 1 15+ point loss). Unfortunately I don't know if Knight will play and he is unlikely to play much if he does. Chicago looked pretty bad against the Knicks. Can they recover in time for tonight's game? I have to take Charlotte here, just because it seems more likely than not that Knight will play.
Toronto +5 at Seattle----- Confidence factor: 3. Ray Allen is supposed to play tonight. He has sat 9 straight games so his minutes and effectiveness may be somewhat limited. He was also shooting pretty poorly before because of the foot injury, so maybe he's pain free and goes nuts. Either way I think TJ Ford will lead this mysteriously successful Toronto team to victory.
Sunday, December 17, 2006
Last night's picks
My wrongs:
Charlotte loses to the Celtics. Well this one's easy to explain - Sean May goes down with an ankle sprain in the second quarter and Brevin Knight sits the game out. There go two of Charlotte's three best and most consistent players. I was right about Tony Allen but wrong about Jefferson. When's Al gonna remember that in reality, he's lazy and not aggressive. Sheesh. I don't know, maybe he's the real deal. I was ready to say that about Eddy Curry though, and look at his performances these last two games.
Cleveland loses to Orlando. Dwight Howard and Grant Hill both have solid games and the Magic get contributions from a depleted bench. With Nelson and Turkoglu out, Ariza and Arroyo, 2 of the magic's 3 normal rotation players off the bench, started. They didn't play much though, as Travis Diener, Keyon Dooling and even Mr. Reigning College Player of the Year (6 points, 2/6 shooting, 2/3 3pointers) contributed. Milicic also almost had his first double double of the season with 12 points and 9 rebounds in a season high 32 minutes. These unexpected bench contributors were too much for Cleveland who, once again, looked like they were standing around waiting for Lebron (10/19 fgs, 29 points) to carry them to victory. Larry Hughes followed up his "I'm Back" game where he scored 25 on 11/16 shooting with a "Just Kidding" game where he went 5/17 for 14 points and a healthy 4 turnovers.
Chicago beats Atlanta in OT (doesn't cover). Marvin Williams looked comfortable in the starting lineup in his 6th game back from injury. In 43 minutes he shot 9/15 including 2/3 from long distance with 7 rebounds and 2 blocks. I plan to keep a close eye on him, as he seems very in control on the court and may just be blooming before our eyes. Chicago played a solid game, but Atlanta is a good team if Williams keeps it up - Joe Johnson, Williams and Josh Smith are all very dynamic players who affect the game in multiple ways. That's a scary lineup. If speedy stays healthy and contributes, this team really could make the playoffs in the east. Let's not get too excited though. They did still lose.
Detroit beats New Jersey. RJ ended up playing. The Nets still lost. The nets are really struggling and my feeling is that the problem isn't that Kidd is older (or VC for that matter), but that Jason Collins and Cliff Robinson are old and really really slow. Now I know robinson hardly plays and has been replaced in the rotation by CBA standout Mikki Moore, and Kidd has done a decent job of making Moore look like he deserves to be in the rotation, but the Nets need to make a move. Kidd is going to slow down, even if doesn't happen this year. My first choice would be to trade VC, but his contract is expiring and so, unless the nets want to go after AI, who doesn't seem like much of an upgrade, I'm not sure what the Nets can do with him. RJ on the other hand has a lot of value, as he is still pretty young and showed the abililty to be a team's first option when Kidd and Carter were hurt. I would move him and try to get some size and a starting caliber SF. Here's a trade that I think would work for the Nets (and for all teams involved).
My Rights:
New York gets blown out by Denver. Ahhh the pick of the night. I watched this game live to the bitter end and boy did I get a treat with 1:14 left in the fourth. Nothing like watching Carmelo Anthony run in and sucker punch a guy then sprint off to hide behind his teammates. May the Pistons brawl references and the NBA players are thugs comments commence. Ahhh hypocrisy. Expect another full fledged blog on this once they announce the length of the suspensions. Anyway, New York looked lost even with Marbury coming out and playing like the Starbury of old. Just like last night they played no defense. Just like a lot of their games, they didn't realize the energy level required to compete in an NBA game until about 1/2 way through the 3rd quarter. Of course by then it was too late.
Miami beats Memphis. Gasol looked much better in his limited minutes. Wade was Wade. The heat beat the pile-o-shit team of the NBA. This may be the last time I get to say that though now that Pau is back. At least until they trade him.
Dallas beats Hornets. Boring game. Dallas plays a decent game and wins by 11. About what you'd expect. The Hornets are not a deep team, so until West or Peja comes back, they are gonna keep on sliding. This run here may end up being the reason why they don't make the playoffs, because with West and Peja they are a dangerous team.
San Antonio sneaks past Philly. Weeeee doggy. Guess who's going on my All-Star ballot. Can I get a K, how about an E, how about a VIN and then... AN OLLIE!!!! (I used to be a cheerleader). Mr. Ollie, looked like the spirit of AI was inside him as he trotted by bored San Antonio defenders for awkward and unathletic looking layup after layup. He actually started off 9/9 but cooled off and missed his last two shots. It's a shame the other AI (Iguodala) exploded in the second half, because I was really looking forward to dedicating a paragraph to how Ollie has been the Sixers leading scorer for two straight games. Whatever, I still managed to dedicate this whole paragraph to him. Philly actually gave San Antonio a bit of a scare here, but in the end they got away with their 30 minutes of vacation time and won the game. And as I predicted, Philly covered the 16.5 point spread.
Minnesota loses to the Bucks. As I said Minny sucks and if AI goes elsewhere they need to trade KG immediately. Villanueva didn't even play in this game, so the bucks sent Brian Skinner out to guard Garnett, and they still pulled this one out.
Phoenix beats Sacramento. Phoenix wins by 7, despite the fact that Kevin Martin had a nice game. Another interesting thing to note here is that Sac moved Kenny Thomas to the bench and started John Salmons, shifting Artest to power forward. I hope this is permanent, as Kenny Thomas is a crappy player, but it may have just been a way of matching up better with Phoenix. Either way Salmons had a nice game, shooting 9/14 for 20 points in 43 minutes. He's a good player who has put up nice numbers any time he's been given the minutes. He is also a very good defensive player. In the end this game was much closer than I anticipated (I expected a blowout), but Phoenix still won and covered.
Todays record: 6-4
Overall: 11-12
Charlotte loses to the Celtics. Well this one's easy to explain - Sean May goes down with an ankle sprain in the second quarter and Brevin Knight sits the game out. There go two of Charlotte's three best and most consistent players. I was right about Tony Allen but wrong about Jefferson. When's Al gonna remember that in reality, he's lazy and not aggressive. Sheesh. I don't know, maybe he's the real deal. I was ready to say that about Eddy Curry though, and look at his performances these last two games.
Cleveland loses to Orlando. Dwight Howard and Grant Hill both have solid games and the Magic get contributions from a depleted bench. With Nelson and Turkoglu out, Ariza and Arroyo, 2 of the magic's 3 normal rotation players off the bench, started. They didn't play much though, as Travis Diener, Keyon Dooling and even Mr. Reigning College Player of the Year (6 points, 2/6 shooting, 2/3 3pointers) contributed. Milicic also almost had his first double double of the season with 12 points and 9 rebounds in a season high 32 minutes. These unexpected bench contributors were too much for Cleveland who, once again, looked like they were standing around waiting for Lebron (10/19 fgs, 29 points) to carry them to victory. Larry Hughes followed up his "I'm Back" game where he scored 25 on 11/16 shooting with a "Just Kidding" game where he went 5/17 for 14 points and a healthy 4 turnovers.
Chicago beats Atlanta in OT (doesn't cover). Marvin Williams looked comfortable in the starting lineup in his 6th game back from injury. In 43 minutes he shot 9/15 including 2/3 from long distance with 7 rebounds and 2 blocks. I plan to keep a close eye on him, as he seems very in control on the court and may just be blooming before our eyes. Chicago played a solid game, but Atlanta is a good team if Williams keeps it up - Joe Johnson, Williams and Josh Smith are all very dynamic players who affect the game in multiple ways. That's a scary lineup. If speedy stays healthy and contributes, this team really could make the playoffs in the east. Let's not get too excited though. They did still lose.
Detroit beats New Jersey. RJ ended up playing. The Nets still lost. The nets are really struggling and my feeling is that the problem isn't that Kidd is older (or VC for that matter), but that Jason Collins and Cliff Robinson are old and really really slow. Now I know robinson hardly plays and has been replaced in the rotation by CBA standout Mikki Moore, and Kidd has done a decent job of making Moore look like he deserves to be in the rotation, but the Nets need to make a move. Kidd is going to slow down, even if doesn't happen this year. My first choice would be to trade VC, but his contract is expiring and so, unless the nets want to go after AI, who doesn't seem like much of an upgrade, I'm not sure what the Nets can do with him. RJ on the other hand has a lot of value, as he is still pretty young and showed the abililty to be a team's first option when Kidd and Carter were hurt. I would move him and try to get some size and a starting caliber SF. Here's a trade that I think would work for the Nets (and for all teams involved).
My Rights:
New York gets blown out by Denver. Ahhh the pick of the night. I watched this game live to the bitter end and boy did I get a treat with 1:14 left in the fourth. Nothing like watching Carmelo Anthony run in and sucker punch a guy then sprint off to hide behind his teammates. May the Pistons brawl references and the NBA players are thugs comments commence. Ahhh hypocrisy. Expect another full fledged blog on this once they announce the length of the suspensions. Anyway, New York looked lost even with Marbury coming out and playing like the Starbury of old. Just like last night they played no defense. Just like a lot of their games, they didn't realize the energy level required to compete in an NBA game until about 1/2 way through the 3rd quarter. Of course by then it was too late.
Miami beats Memphis. Gasol looked much better in his limited minutes. Wade was Wade. The heat beat the pile-o-shit team of the NBA. This may be the last time I get to say that though now that Pau is back. At least until they trade him.
Dallas beats Hornets. Boring game. Dallas plays a decent game and wins by 11. About what you'd expect. The Hornets are not a deep team, so until West or Peja comes back, they are gonna keep on sliding. This run here may end up being the reason why they don't make the playoffs, because with West and Peja they are a dangerous team.
San Antonio sneaks past Philly. Weeeee doggy. Guess who's going on my All-Star ballot. Can I get a K, how about an E, how about a VIN and then... AN OLLIE!!!! (I used to be a cheerleader). Mr. Ollie, looked like the spirit of AI was inside him as he trotted by bored San Antonio defenders for awkward and unathletic looking layup after layup. He actually started off 9/9 but cooled off and missed his last two shots. It's a shame the other AI (Iguodala) exploded in the second half, because I was really looking forward to dedicating a paragraph to how Ollie has been the Sixers leading scorer for two straight games. Whatever, I still managed to dedicate this whole paragraph to him. Philly actually gave San Antonio a bit of a scare here, but in the end they got away with their 30 minutes of vacation time and won the game. And as I predicted, Philly covered the 16.5 point spread.
Minnesota loses to the Bucks. As I said Minny sucks and if AI goes elsewhere they need to trade KG immediately. Villanueva didn't even play in this game, so the bucks sent Brian Skinner out to guard Garnett, and they still pulled this one out.
Phoenix beats Sacramento. Phoenix wins by 7, despite the fact that Kevin Martin had a nice game. Another interesting thing to note here is that Sac moved Kenny Thomas to the bench and started John Salmons, shifting Artest to power forward. I hope this is permanent, as Kenny Thomas is a crappy player, but it may have just been a way of matching up better with Phoenix. Either way Salmons had a nice game, shooting 9/14 for 20 points in 43 minutes. He's a good player who has put up nice numbers any time he's been given the minutes. He is also a very good defensive player. In the end this game was much closer than I anticipated (I expected a blowout), but Phoenix still won and covered.
Todays record: 6-4
Overall: 11-12
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