Okay starting tonight I'm adding two elements to my picks. First I'm going to give a confidence rating of 1 through 5 (5 meaning I'm quite confident in my pick). Second I am going to have a pick of the night. I will track my pick of the night record separately.
Timberwolves +4 1/2 at Indiana----- Confidence factor: 2. The first meeting of the year between these two teams. Indy has been looking good. KG and Ricky Davis sat in Minny's last game in Indiana and the Wolves lost by 12. Indy has had some solid wins in their recent streak of 4 wins in 5 games. I go with Indy here, but more out of disrespect for the Wolves than respect for the Pacers.
Orlando +7 1/2 at Cleveland----- Confidence factor: 3. Orlando is coming off of a home loss to GS, but as I said in my recap of that game, Baron Davis controlled that game. Orlando was helpless. GS also has many more tools than Cleveland does. If Cleveland wins this game it will be in a gritty and tight fought defensive battle.
New York +3 at Philadelphia----- Confidence factor: 4. Can't pick against New York after that convincing victory over Chicago, especially when Philly is playing its first game with Miller and Smith. Historically NY has given up big games to bad players like Willie Green. Andre Miller has also had some good success against the Knicks. I don't consider it out of the question that Philly pulls this one out, but if the Knicks play defense like they have in any of these last 3 games, they should easily dispose of the Sixers.
Atlanta +10 1/2 at Detroit----- Confidence factor: 4. Atlanta has struggled to finish games lately. They are at full strength and they only lost by 5 in their last visit to Detroit. In most of Detroit's losses you will find that big games from the opposition's post man led them to victory. Atlanta has no post presence to speak of. I also feel that Detroit is a team of streaks and they have really picked things up since they last met Atlanta.
Golden State +5 1/2 at Miami----- Confidence factor: 2. Golden State now has it's wild card in Baron Davis. Davis is hot. He's carried them in their recent road winning streak. J-Rich still ain't right, but they've got plenty of other talent. I'll go with the wild card here and say Davis stays hot. The heat have no chance if he does.
San Antonio -9 1/2 at New Orleans----- Confidence factor: 2. San Antonio is coming off of an embarrassing trampling at home against Houston. New Orleans also looked somewhat energized in their home victory against Memphis. I think the embarrassment motivates the spurs to a 10+ point victory.
Utah -4 at Memphis----- Confidence factor: 4. Okur has a bruised chest. Utah has been far from dominant on this road trip (2-2). The question I'm asking myself is, did Utah lose to Charlotte because Charlotte can only win against premiere teams, or was it just a poor performance? I'm not sure, but one thing I can say is that the Knicks have shown that they're performance against Utah wasn't a fluke, so that provides some relief for what could have been labeled an embarrassment for Utah. They also beat an Indiana team which has surrounded that loss with 4 wins. I think Utah wins this. If Okur sits, that's fine - Kirilenko gets to play PF where he is much more comfortable and Millsap steps in.
New Jersey +4 at Milwaukee----- **PICK OF THE NIGHT** Confidence factor: 5. The bucks are an inconsistent team. The Nets are without Krstic, but to me this is a good thing. This opens the door for more PT for Mikki Moore and Josh Boone. The Nets need athletic big men on the court, and Lawrence Frank's refusal to put these guys out there is quite annoying. Krstic is a decent low post guy, but he doesn't rebound and he doesn't block shots. Carter could turn out to be a better post player than Krstic and either way it will force the nets to run more. Look for a blowout.
Clippers +7 1/2 at Houston----- Confidence factor: 3. After the timberwolves the team that I find most annoying is the Clippers. Houston is coming off a big win at San Antonio, but they aren't an explosive streaky team. They just caught the spurs on an off night. The clippers just suck though. They are totally lost. You'd have to add 10 points to that spread for me to pick them.
Charlotte +10 1/2 at Chicago----- Confidence factor: 1. Charlotte doesn't get to be a king killer because the Knicks just dismantled Chicago last night. The Bulls haven't played Charlotte yet this season. Charlotte is a competitive with Knight in the lineup (only 1 15+ point loss). Unfortunately I don't know if Knight will play and he is unlikely to play much if he does. Chicago looked pretty bad against the Knicks. Can they recover in time for tonight's game? I have to take Charlotte here, just because it seems more likely than not that Knight will play.
Toronto +5 at Seattle----- Confidence factor: 3. Ray Allen is supposed to play tonight. He has sat 9 straight games so his minutes and effectiveness may be somewhat limited. He was also shooting pretty poorly before because of the foot injury, so maybe he's pain free and goes nuts. Either way I think TJ Ford will lead this mysteriously successful Toronto team to victory.
Saturday, December 23, 2006
last nights games
My Wrongs:
Charlotte beats Utah----- I don't think many people picked this one. As I was thinking over this pick I did consider, for a brief moment, the fact that Charlotte has beaten a lot of good teams. I also considered the fact that Utah really struggles against the zone and Okafor makes the zone appealing for Charlotte. I guess I should have considered those factors more. I don't know though - if they were playing again in Charlotte next week with the same spread I would still pick Utah. Who wouldn't?
Quote from AP recap: Carroll, who hadn't attempted a shot in the first three quarters, launched a 3-pointer from the right wing. Andrei Kirilenko lunged at him and Carroll's follow-through hit him in the mouth, chipping his tooth. The shot fell and Kirilenko was called for the foul.
"It was hanging and he just grabbed it and threw it to the ground," Carroll said. "I said to him, 'Are you OK?' and he said, 'It's just a tooth.' I'm thinking this guy is one tough Russian. I thought he was going to break me the next time I came down court."
Golden State beats Orlando----- J-Rich only played 15 minutes (1/5). The story of this game was Baron Davis (38 points, 9 assists, 4 steals). When you are missing two of your top scorers and a guy with superstar talent is going off like that, you are going to lose. Some guys can just take over a game and that's what Baron did.
New York beats Chicago----- Ben Gordon always has big games against New York and tonight was no exception (27 points). The story of this game however was the Knicks absolute dominance on the boards. The Knicks had 20 offensive rebounds and outrebounded Chicago 57-36. Sick. I don't have to remind you that David Lee is a monster. And he's becoming the leader of this team. He's the one who comes over and unabashedly congratulates teammates when they make plays. He is always having fun and he's teaching the Knicks how to have fun again in the process. Having fun in the pressure of NYC is tough (just look at how NY started off at home), so Lee's effect on this team cannot be overemphasized. And Chicago continued to try to play Andres Nocioni, Deng and Wallace up front. The Knicks had Frye, Curry and Lee in. It's no wonder the Bulls were abused on the boards. It wasn't until late 3rd quarter that Skiles put Mike Sweetney in (remember him?). The Knicks looked like they looked against Utah. Every time someone got beat another guy would step up and help, and the defense recovered off of almost all the passes. Eddy Curry was into it. Jerome James and Kelvin Cato were on the floor at the same time because Lee and Frye were in early foul trouble. They were into it. I think I saw Jerome James contest a 3 pointer for the first time in his life. Also noteworthy is the crap game Hinrich played. He was missing open jumpers. He was passing up open 15 footers. He was committing bad fouls. His #s this year, other than a commendable increase in FG%, are down across the board. I wonder what the problem is. I've always been a fan of his, but it seems like he hasn't improved since his second year.
Indiana beats Atlanta----- Stephen Jackson went off. Joe Johnson's young friends struggled. Claxton still hasn't put together two straight solid games. Maybe next time Atlanta gets it straight? Eh, I maintain long term optimism (as in a couple of months), but they seem to be missing something for the time being.
Toronto beats Portland----- I guess TJ Ford is good. I think that's been my problem in comprehending how Toronto is winning. I still insist that it is in spite of Sam Mitchell and in spite of the fact that that Mo-Pete hardly plays. Brandon Roy almost had a triple double. Maybe Ime Udoka can go to the Nets and join Jason Collins in the starting lineup. His line last night: 20 minutes, 1/8 fgs, 4 pts, 1 rebound, 1 assist. It's funny, if you just looked at the minutes column in the box score for this game, you would be ready to put big money on the fact that this was a bad blowout. Between the two teams there were 3 starters who logged 35+ minutes. And this was an overtime game.
Washington beats Phoenix in OT----- I told you I don't like picking Washington games, but I was pretty confident that they would lose this one. Instead Gilbert Arenas goes nuts again and carries his team into OT then to victory. Yes, he had help, but if he regular old 10/25 fgs, 35 points Gil, the suns are double digit winners. Instead his 54 trump steve nash's career high tying 42 and the Wiz walk away winners. Arenas just likes to be unpredictable. I should try to use logic to pick the rest of the wizards games and then pick the opposite result.
Philadelphia beats Boston----- No wally, no pierce. Wish I'd realized pierce was out. Al Jefferson gets to experience what it's like to be the other team's focus defensively. Gerald Green got big minutes and will continue to until Pierce gets back. We can get something of a better idea if the Celts were wise to hang on to him instead of Iverson. My first impression here is that Green is like JR Smith, athletically gifted, defensively inept and uninterested, and a pretty good shooter.
My Rights:
Lakers beat Nets----- Krstic goes down earlier. VC goes for 33 but on 13/30 shooting. Kobe takes only 13 shots and scores 21 but also has 11 assists. I have no doubt in my mind that Kobe is the best player in the league today. He still has an inferiority complex, but he has learned to hold it back. He understands how to win and he is a bit more sensitive about the fragile psyches of his teammates. And the Nets still suck. Jason Collins plays 30 minutes, doesn't attempt a shot and manages 5 rebounds and a block. When are the nets going to realize that you can't win with a guy like this playing 30 minutes? Kidd is a dangerous passer. He has to work with 1 less target because not only is Collins a below average set shot shooter, but he is practically immobile. He isn't going to run the break, he can't catch the ball inside and then go up. His identical twin Jarron looks so much younger.
Houston beats San Antonio----- Like I said in me preview, the easiest and most effective way to kick Houston's butt is to run and attack. Use athleticism. San Antonio is below average in both athleticism and ability to run. Now guys like Juwan Howard look competent. Bonzi showed up for this one too. Maybe Houston should just let T-Mac have back massages for 8 hours a day until the playoffs. If Bonzi plays well they could still get a 5th seed or so. Then T-Mac would be good and loose.
New Orleans beats Memphis in OT----- Memphis came back late in this came and took the lead. New Orleans took it to OT and by then Gasol had used all the minutes he was allowed. That's the end of the story.
Milwaukee beats Minnesota----- Trade KG. That's all I'm gonna talk about it Minnesota losses until it happens. Trade him. The bucks suck. They didn't even have their second string small forward, Ruben Patterson. KG, look at your roster. Your team is bad and by sitting there and wasting away you aren't helping anyone. All you are doing is allowing Minnesota owners to cash in on your name. That's why they won't trade you - you're a cash cow. It has nothing to do with delusional faith that your team will one day magically click and be good.
Dallas beats Clips----- Dirk played and the mavs won by 32. I maintain that this would still have been a 20 point victory if Dirk had sat. I don't have anything left to say about this team. It's a simple equation. If starting pg ≠ (yes that's the "not equal to" sign) "Sam Cassell", clippers wins = "few far between". Another team that will regret not getting AI.
Sac beats Denver----- Artest sat again. AI had a good opener, but as I predicted the rest of Denver sucked. Also John Salmons had a triple double. Funny, he would be the second best player on the sixers right now if they had signed him instead of Willie Green, Korver and future all-star Kevin Ollie.
Last night's record: 6-6
Overall: 27-23
Charlotte beats Utah----- I don't think many people picked this one. As I was thinking over this pick I did consider, for a brief moment, the fact that Charlotte has beaten a lot of good teams. I also considered the fact that Utah really struggles against the zone and Okafor makes the zone appealing for Charlotte. I guess I should have considered those factors more. I don't know though - if they were playing again in Charlotte next week with the same spread I would still pick Utah. Who wouldn't?
Quote from AP recap: Carroll, who hadn't attempted a shot in the first three quarters, launched a 3-pointer from the right wing. Andrei Kirilenko lunged at him and Carroll's follow-through hit him in the mouth, chipping his tooth. The shot fell and Kirilenko was called for the foul.
"It was hanging and he just grabbed it and threw it to the ground," Carroll said. "I said to him, 'Are you OK?' and he said, 'It's just a tooth.' I'm thinking this guy is one tough Russian. I thought he was going to break me the next time I came down court."
Golden State beats Orlando----- J-Rich only played 15 minutes (1/5). The story of this game was Baron Davis (38 points, 9 assists, 4 steals). When you are missing two of your top scorers and a guy with superstar talent is going off like that, you are going to lose. Some guys can just take over a game and that's what Baron did.
New York beats Chicago----- Ben Gordon always has big games against New York and tonight was no exception (27 points). The story of this game however was the Knicks absolute dominance on the boards. The Knicks had 20 offensive rebounds and outrebounded Chicago 57-36. Sick. I don't have to remind you that David Lee is a monster. And he's becoming the leader of this team. He's the one who comes over and unabashedly congratulates teammates when they make plays. He is always having fun and he's teaching the Knicks how to have fun again in the process. Having fun in the pressure of NYC is tough (just look at how NY started off at home), so Lee's effect on this team cannot be overemphasized. And Chicago continued to try to play Andres Nocioni, Deng and Wallace up front. The Knicks had Frye, Curry and Lee in. It's no wonder the Bulls were abused on the boards. It wasn't until late 3rd quarter that Skiles put Mike Sweetney in (remember him?). The Knicks looked like they looked against Utah. Every time someone got beat another guy would step up and help, and the defense recovered off of almost all the passes. Eddy Curry was into it. Jerome James and Kelvin Cato were on the floor at the same time because Lee and Frye were in early foul trouble. They were into it. I think I saw Jerome James contest a 3 pointer for the first time in his life. Also noteworthy is the crap game Hinrich played. He was missing open jumpers. He was passing up open 15 footers. He was committing bad fouls. His #s this year, other than a commendable increase in FG%, are down across the board. I wonder what the problem is. I've always been a fan of his, but it seems like he hasn't improved since his second year.
Indiana beats Atlanta----- Stephen Jackson went off. Joe Johnson's young friends struggled. Claxton still hasn't put together two straight solid games. Maybe next time Atlanta gets it straight? Eh, I maintain long term optimism (as in a couple of months), but they seem to be missing something for the time being.
Toronto beats Portland----- I guess TJ Ford is good. I think that's been my problem in comprehending how Toronto is winning. I still insist that it is in spite of Sam Mitchell and in spite of the fact that that Mo-Pete hardly plays. Brandon Roy almost had a triple double. Maybe Ime Udoka can go to the Nets and join Jason Collins in the starting lineup. His line last night: 20 minutes, 1/8 fgs, 4 pts, 1 rebound, 1 assist. It's funny, if you just looked at the minutes column in the box score for this game, you would be ready to put big money on the fact that this was a bad blowout. Between the two teams there were 3 starters who logged 35+ minutes. And this was an overtime game.
Washington beats Phoenix in OT----- I told you I don't like picking Washington games, but I was pretty confident that they would lose this one. Instead Gilbert Arenas goes nuts again and carries his team into OT then to victory. Yes, he had help, but if he regular old 10/25 fgs, 35 points Gil, the suns are double digit winners. Instead his 54 trump steve nash's career high tying 42 and the Wiz walk away winners. Arenas just likes to be unpredictable. I should try to use logic to pick the rest of the wizards games and then pick the opposite result.
Philadelphia beats Boston----- No wally, no pierce. Wish I'd realized pierce was out. Al Jefferson gets to experience what it's like to be the other team's focus defensively. Gerald Green got big minutes and will continue to until Pierce gets back. We can get something of a better idea if the Celts were wise to hang on to him instead of Iverson. My first impression here is that Green is like JR Smith, athletically gifted, defensively inept and uninterested, and a pretty good shooter.
My Rights:
Lakers beat Nets----- Krstic goes down earlier. VC goes for 33 but on 13/30 shooting. Kobe takes only 13 shots and scores 21 but also has 11 assists. I have no doubt in my mind that Kobe is the best player in the league today. He still has an inferiority complex, but he has learned to hold it back. He understands how to win and he is a bit more sensitive about the fragile psyches of his teammates. And the Nets still suck. Jason Collins plays 30 minutes, doesn't attempt a shot and manages 5 rebounds and a block. When are the nets going to realize that you can't win with a guy like this playing 30 minutes? Kidd is a dangerous passer. He has to work with 1 less target because not only is Collins a below average set shot shooter, but he is practically immobile. He isn't going to run the break, he can't catch the ball inside and then go up. His identical twin Jarron looks so much younger.
Houston beats San Antonio----- Like I said in me preview, the easiest and most effective way to kick Houston's butt is to run and attack. Use athleticism. San Antonio is below average in both athleticism and ability to run. Now guys like Juwan Howard look competent. Bonzi showed up for this one too. Maybe Houston should just let T-Mac have back massages for 8 hours a day until the playoffs. If Bonzi plays well they could still get a 5th seed or so. Then T-Mac would be good and loose.
New Orleans beats Memphis in OT----- Memphis came back late in this came and took the lead. New Orleans took it to OT and by then Gasol had used all the minutes he was allowed. That's the end of the story.
Milwaukee beats Minnesota----- Trade KG. That's all I'm gonna talk about it Minnesota losses until it happens. Trade him. The bucks suck. They didn't even have their second string small forward, Ruben Patterson. KG, look at your roster. Your team is bad and by sitting there and wasting away you aren't helping anyone. All you are doing is allowing Minnesota owners to cash in on your name. That's why they won't trade you - you're a cash cow. It has nothing to do with delusional faith that your team will one day magically click and be good.
Dallas beats Clips----- Dirk played and the mavs won by 32. I maintain that this would still have been a 20 point victory if Dirk had sat. I don't have anything left to say about this team. It's a simple equation. If starting pg ≠ (yes that's the "not equal to" sign) "Sam Cassell", clippers wins = "few far between". Another team that will regret not getting AI.
Sac beats Denver----- Artest sat again. AI had a good opener, but as I predicted the rest of Denver sucked. Also John Salmons had a triple double. Funny, he would be the second best player on the sixers right now if they had signed him instead of Willie Green, Korver and future all-star Kevin Ollie.
Last night's record: 6-6
Overall: 27-23
Friday, December 22, 2006
12/21 picks recap and picks for 12/22
LAST NIGHT RECAP
Pistons at Cleveland----- The Pistons pummel the Cavs. This one was close when Lebron was 6/7, not so close when the final buzzer sounded and Lebron was 9/20. To be honest I don't think I can place the blame for this one on Lebron. We all knew that as soon as Lebron made some shots the Pistons would start terrorizing him with double and triple teams. The rest of his team sucks. His supporting cast is remarkable similar to Yao's when T-Mac is out, unathletic, old and uninspired. I know, I already went on an anti-Cavs rant in my preview of this game, but I can't help it. I think were the Cavs in the West, they would have a record similar to Houston's when T-Mac is out (1-4). It is still very very early to start talking about this, but Lebron's story is already starting to look a bit like Minnesota's with KG. I've heard people call Danny Ferry a good GM - how so? What has he done? He signed a deal to be GM in June 05, since then: signed Damon Jones to a 4 year deal worth about $14 million, extended Drew Gooden w/ 3 year $18 million deal, drafted Shannon Brown and Daniel Gibson, signed larry hughes to a 5 year 65 million deal, signed david wesley for 1 year 1.7 million, reupped Zydrunas Ilgauskas 5 years $55 million 4 years and 17 million to Donyell Marshall. So he gave two old players big long term contracts, he paid a one-hit wonder huge money (hughes), signed a guy as a backup guard who is the same player as the guy he signed the year before (damon jones), also a one hit wonder. His draft picks have looked pretty good, particularly gibson, and he got a pretty good deal on the drew gooden contract, but on the whole Ferry's moves look careless and reek of inexperience.
Washington beats Sacramento----- Artest sits, but Kevin Martin, who i thought would sit, goes for 40. I think Artest's absence was no small factor in Martin's outburst. It was also no small factor in the Kings giving up 126 points. Salmons started again and followed up a poor performance by shooting 10/14 and scoring 24. He also added 5 assists and 4 steals. Washington didn't seem particularly motivated on defense. Let me get this straight - the Wizards hired Eddie Jordan out from Byron Scott's coaching staff because he was supposedly the defensive mastermind behind the Nets' defensive dominance during their k-mart/kittles/conference finals years. Defense is all about discipline. Not only does this team have no defensive discipline, but their offensive strategy is also completely without structure. So much for a team taking on its coaches personality.
Yesterday's record: 2-0
Overall: 21-17
PICKS FOR TONIGHT
Man, 13 games tonight.
Utah -7 1/2 at Charlotte----- Charlotte sucks. When the Bobcats win they win because the other team lost focus. The Jazz are probably the most focused to team in the NBA. The Bobcats are likely without Knight again and definitely without Sean May. That means another start for Derek Anderson, who I thought was for sure retired. Anderson has been reduced to fewer than 25 games each of the last two seasons. His high in the last four seasons is 51 games. He reportedly refused to practice at all all summer because he was so paranoid that he would get hurt. No wonder he's shooting 28%. In case you hadn't figured it out yet, I'm going with the Jazz.
Golden State +4 1/2 at Orlando----- The Magic are coming off of a 3 point win against New Orleans at home. If it wasn't for 6' Chris Paul dunking on Dwight Howard, the highlights for this game would have shown how offensively inept the Magic are with starters Hedo Turkoglu and Jameer Nelson injured. Dwight Howard continues to turn the ball over like crazy. He also continues to rebound and block shots, and the Magic continue to be one of the best defensive teams in the league. The Hornets took 13 more free throws then the Magic, outrebounded them on the offensive glass, and equaled them in turnovers. Usually that differential would add up to a victory, but the Hornets, even more devastated by injuries than the Magic, managed to shoot only 37%. The Magic shot 45% and scrounged out a not that impressive victory. In Golden State's last game, Jason Richardson got his first big minutes since coming back from soreness in his surgically repaired knee. In 41 minutes Richardson scored 9 on 4/19 shooting. Richardson was 1/7 on three pointers, and missed all 5 of his mid range jump shots. In fairness he was covering and covered by Paul Pierce, which is a lot of hard work. Okay I'm blabbering on and on. GS is 4-7 in December, 2-9 overall on the road. Orlando is too good defensively for J-Rich to break out. I have to go with Orlando here. If the spread were 6+ I would probably have gone GS.
Lakers +3 at New Jersey----- On 11/26 the nets lost to the lakers by 6 in LA. Both teams were at full strength. Now in NJ the nets are at full strength and the Lakers are missing Odom. The nets are coming off of their second best win of the season, beating Cleveland by 2 at home. The lakers, even without Odom, are a better team than the Cavs. They have quality victories against Houston, San Antonio, Chicago and Utah. And you even get 3 points. Gotta go with the lakers.
Chicago -6 at New York----- New York just scraped out a victory in a game where both teams played horribly. Imagine if the knicks didn't carry six guards on their roster. We would be seeing backcourt lineups like Balkman, Lee and Malik Rose. This team was grumbling about how tired they were after last game, setting themselves up for a let down. Chicago has owned the Knicks (double digit victories in both of their meetings this season). Crawford and Curry are both ex-Bulls though, so you might see some kind of explosion from them. Still definitely going with Chicago here.
Indiana -3 at Atlanta----- Atlanta has been playing well and falling just short. It's about time they pull together a complete game. They are healthy and playing a team that is inconsistent. J O'neal has had some good games recently, but he's always been a streaky player, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him struggle against the (surprisingly good) hawks defense.
Milwaukee +6 at Minnesota----- Milwaukee pulled out a win at home in their last meeting with KG and minnesota. Minny has lost 3 in row including that 4 point lost to the Bucks. The Bucks, however, are only 4-10 on the road. The bucks will win this one then lose tomorrow in NJ.
Memphis +2 at New Orleans----- Wow memphis is favored on the road (2-13 record). That could be the first time this season. Things are looking pretty bleak for the thin Hornets. Peja and West had surgery this week. If you think that the reason the Hornets have been losing is because they are waiting for west and peja to rescue them, then you don't have to worry about that anymore. Go ahead and pick the Hornets. Do it. You know you like Hilton Armstrong. Look for Gasol to get 25 minutes or so. In fact, I'm gonna go with the Hornets too. Not for that reason, but because Memphis is crap, fratello won't let the young guys in, and his old guys suck.
Philadelphia +3 at Boston----- You are probably imagining an all-star backcourt of Kevin Ollie and Andre Miller. Me too. Who is going to score for the sixers? Miller scores in like 1/5 games. Joe Smith sucks. Kyle Korver is a catch and shoot player. C-Webb is a joke. This team will move the ball a lot better without AI and with the offense going through webber, but webber is a gimp. He can't move anymore, can't guard anyone. The only guys on the sixers who try to play defense are Iggy and Ollie. Dalembert makes occasional cameos on defense as well, but he rarely makes them 2x in a row (16 pts 13 rebounds last game).
Houston +8 1/2 at San Antonio----- 8 1/2 is a lot of points. San Antonio doesn't have the quickness or athleticism to take advantage of Houston's biggest shortcoming. And maybe Bonzi will remember his performances against the spurs last spring and put on a little retro, "I'm not as fat as you thought," performance.
Clippers +9 at Dallas----- Big spread with Nowitzki questionable. The Clippers look hopeless. They are losing to everyone (5 in a row). Mike Dunleavy, why doesn't elton brand get the ball more? Nowitzki has had several of these ankle sprains and has generally played through them, but quite frankly, I don't care if he plays. Either way I think Dallas at home dominates.
Sacramento +3 at Denver----- The AI era begins with Sac coming into town. Camby is out. Artest missed the last game. Let's not forget how thin Denver is with no more Joe Smith and no JR smith. I think AI plays a good game, tries to show up the Sixers, but with no Camby, Salmons and Bibby will get in the paint and Kevin Martin will continue to be Kevin Martin. that's too much for even AI to overcome.
Toronto +4 at Portland----- Portland has a lot of decent players, one good player, and a good coach. McMillan's the guy who led basically the same seattle team as you see today to 52 wins. His team is young, but they play hard. Toronto has been hot since bosh went down, winning 4 of 5 including a win in Orlando. I can't stand the way Mitchell manages this team though and am at a loss as to exactly how they managed to win those 4 games. I think I'm gonna write it off as catching the other teams on off nights. Portland is consistently average and will beat this Toronto team handily.
Washington +11 at Phoenix----- You might think, well here are two high scoring teams, two teams with a lot of offensive talent. It should be close. The problem here is that the Wiz's greatest asset is their ability to break down other teams one on one (i know i've talked about this before). Phoenix is going to give you opportunities to score that are easier than any one on one play, but Washington won't execute as a team well enough to take advantage. Phoenix will run over Washington's horrid defense and blow them out. Phoenix is bound to lose eventually, but I can't pick against them this game.
Pistons at Cleveland----- The Pistons pummel the Cavs. This one was close when Lebron was 6/7, not so close when the final buzzer sounded and Lebron was 9/20. To be honest I don't think I can place the blame for this one on Lebron. We all knew that as soon as Lebron made some shots the Pistons would start terrorizing him with double and triple teams. The rest of his team sucks. His supporting cast is remarkable similar to Yao's when T-Mac is out, unathletic, old and uninspired. I know, I already went on an anti-Cavs rant in my preview of this game, but I can't help it. I think were the Cavs in the West, they would have a record similar to Houston's when T-Mac is out (1-4). It is still very very early to start talking about this, but Lebron's story is already starting to look a bit like Minnesota's with KG. I've heard people call Danny Ferry a good GM - how so? What has he done? He signed a deal to be GM in June 05, since then: signed Damon Jones to a 4 year deal worth about $14 million, extended Drew Gooden w/ 3 year $18 million deal, drafted Shannon Brown and Daniel Gibson, signed larry hughes to a 5 year 65 million deal, signed david wesley for 1 year 1.7 million, reupped Zydrunas Ilgauskas 5 years $55 million 4 years and 17 million to Donyell Marshall. So he gave two old players big long term contracts, he paid a one-hit wonder huge money (hughes), signed a guy as a backup guard who is the same player as the guy he signed the year before (damon jones), also a one hit wonder. His draft picks have looked pretty good, particularly gibson, and he got a pretty good deal on the drew gooden contract, but on the whole Ferry's moves look careless and reek of inexperience.
Washington beats Sacramento----- Artest sits, but Kevin Martin, who i thought would sit, goes for 40. I think Artest's absence was no small factor in Martin's outburst. It was also no small factor in the Kings giving up 126 points. Salmons started again and followed up a poor performance by shooting 10/14 and scoring 24. He also added 5 assists and 4 steals. Washington didn't seem particularly motivated on defense. Let me get this straight - the Wizards hired Eddie Jordan out from Byron Scott's coaching staff because he was supposedly the defensive mastermind behind the Nets' defensive dominance during their k-mart/kittles/conference finals years. Defense is all about discipline. Not only does this team have no defensive discipline, but their offensive strategy is also completely without structure. So much for a team taking on its coaches personality.
Yesterday's record: 2-0
Overall: 21-17
PICKS FOR TONIGHT
Man, 13 games tonight.
Utah -7 1/2 at Charlotte----- Charlotte sucks. When the Bobcats win they win because the other team lost focus. The Jazz are probably the most focused to team in the NBA. The Bobcats are likely without Knight again and definitely without Sean May. That means another start for Derek Anderson, who I thought was for sure retired. Anderson has been reduced to fewer than 25 games each of the last two seasons. His high in the last four seasons is 51 games. He reportedly refused to practice at all all summer because he was so paranoid that he would get hurt. No wonder he's shooting 28%. In case you hadn't figured it out yet, I'm going with the Jazz.
Golden State +4 1/2 at Orlando----- The Magic are coming off of a 3 point win against New Orleans at home. If it wasn't for 6' Chris Paul dunking on Dwight Howard, the highlights for this game would have shown how offensively inept the Magic are with starters Hedo Turkoglu and Jameer Nelson injured. Dwight Howard continues to turn the ball over like crazy. He also continues to rebound and block shots, and the Magic continue to be one of the best defensive teams in the league. The Hornets took 13 more free throws then the Magic, outrebounded them on the offensive glass, and equaled them in turnovers. Usually that differential would add up to a victory, but the Hornets, even more devastated by injuries than the Magic, managed to shoot only 37%. The Magic shot 45% and scrounged out a not that impressive victory. In Golden State's last game, Jason Richardson got his first big minutes since coming back from soreness in his surgically repaired knee. In 41 minutes Richardson scored 9 on 4/19 shooting. Richardson was 1/7 on three pointers, and missed all 5 of his mid range jump shots. In fairness he was covering and covered by Paul Pierce, which is a lot of hard work. Okay I'm blabbering on and on. GS is 4-7 in December, 2-9 overall on the road. Orlando is too good defensively for J-Rich to break out. I have to go with Orlando here. If the spread were 6+ I would probably have gone GS.
Lakers +3 at New Jersey----- On 11/26 the nets lost to the lakers by 6 in LA. Both teams were at full strength. Now in NJ the nets are at full strength and the Lakers are missing Odom. The nets are coming off of their second best win of the season, beating Cleveland by 2 at home. The lakers, even without Odom, are a better team than the Cavs. They have quality victories against Houston, San Antonio, Chicago and Utah. And you even get 3 points. Gotta go with the lakers.
Chicago -6 at New York----- New York just scraped out a victory in a game where both teams played horribly. Imagine if the knicks didn't carry six guards on their roster. We would be seeing backcourt lineups like Balkman, Lee and Malik Rose. This team was grumbling about how tired they were after last game, setting themselves up for a let down. Chicago has owned the Knicks (double digit victories in both of their meetings this season). Crawford and Curry are both ex-Bulls though, so you might see some kind of explosion from them. Still definitely going with Chicago here.
Indiana -3 at Atlanta----- Atlanta has been playing well and falling just short. It's about time they pull together a complete game. They are healthy and playing a team that is inconsistent. J O'neal has had some good games recently, but he's always been a streaky player, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him struggle against the (surprisingly good) hawks defense.
Milwaukee +6 at Minnesota----- Milwaukee pulled out a win at home in their last meeting with KG and minnesota. Minny has lost 3 in row including that 4 point lost to the Bucks. The Bucks, however, are only 4-10 on the road. The bucks will win this one then lose tomorrow in NJ.
Memphis +2 at New Orleans----- Wow memphis is favored on the road (2-13 record). That could be the first time this season. Things are looking pretty bleak for the thin Hornets. Peja and West had surgery this week. If you think that the reason the Hornets have been losing is because they are waiting for west and peja to rescue them, then you don't have to worry about that anymore. Go ahead and pick the Hornets. Do it. You know you like Hilton Armstrong. Look for Gasol to get 25 minutes or so. In fact, I'm gonna go with the Hornets too. Not for that reason, but because Memphis is crap, fratello won't let the young guys in, and his old guys suck.
Philadelphia +3 at Boston----- You are probably imagining an all-star backcourt of Kevin Ollie and Andre Miller. Me too. Who is going to score for the sixers? Miller scores in like 1/5 games. Joe Smith sucks. Kyle Korver is a catch and shoot player. C-Webb is a joke. This team will move the ball a lot better without AI and with the offense going through webber, but webber is a gimp. He can't move anymore, can't guard anyone. The only guys on the sixers who try to play defense are Iggy and Ollie. Dalembert makes occasional cameos on defense as well, but he rarely makes them 2x in a row (16 pts 13 rebounds last game).
Houston +8 1/2 at San Antonio----- 8 1/2 is a lot of points. San Antonio doesn't have the quickness or athleticism to take advantage of Houston's biggest shortcoming. And maybe Bonzi will remember his performances against the spurs last spring and put on a little retro, "I'm not as fat as you thought," performance.
Clippers +9 at Dallas----- Big spread with Nowitzki questionable. The Clippers look hopeless. They are losing to everyone (5 in a row). Mike Dunleavy, why doesn't elton brand get the ball more? Nowitzki has had several of these ankle sprains and has generally played through them, but quite frankly, I don't care if he plays. Either way I think Dallas at home dominates.
Sacramento +3 at Denver----- The AI era begins with Sac coming into town. Camby is out. Artest missed the last game. Let's not forget how thin Denver is with no more Joe Smith and no JR smith. I think AI plays a good game, tries to show up the Sixers, but with no Camby, Salmons and Bibby will get in the paint and Kevin Martin will continue to be Kevin Martin. that's too much for even AI to overcome.
Toronto +4 at Portland----- Portland has a lot of decent players, one good player, and a good coach. McMillan's the guy who led basically the same seattle team as you see today to 52 wins. His team is young, but they play hard. Toronto has been hot since bosh went down, winning 4 of 5 including a win in Orlando. I can't stand the way Mitchell manages this team though and am at a loss as to exactly how they managed to win those 4 games. I think I'm gonna write it off as catching the other teams on off nights. Portland is consistently average and will beat this Toronto team handily.
Washington +11 at Phoenix----- You might think, well here are two high scoring teams, two teams with a lot of offensive talent. It should be close. The problem here is that the Wiz's greatest asset is their ability to break down other teams one on one (i know i've talked about this before). Phoenix is going to give you opportunities to score that are easier than any one on one play, but Washington won't execute as a team well enough to take advantage. Phoenix will run over Washington's horrid defense and blow them out. Phoenix is bound to lose eventually, but I can't pick against them this game.
Thursday, December 21, 2006
KG After AI Trade
KG was quoted saying he was, "a little bit" disappointed when asked how he felt about AI going to Denver.
He continued, "That's pretty much how it goes around here. I've learned not to put too much belief and hope in things until they're concrete and done. ... It would have been a very, very nice Christmas present."
Demand the trade already, KG. We won't blame you. The T-Wolves, the Bulls and the rest of the NBA will all be thankful... At least until they play you and the Bulls in the playoffs.
PICKS FROM TWO NIGHTS AGO
I missed picking last night as I was too busy, but here's a quick recap of Tuesday's picks.
Phoenix beats Toronto----- They covered the 13.5 point spread, but it was kinda close there. Check out the box score from this game (or last night's win at the Clippers) and you will see why John Hollinger is irritated with Toronto. These guys have no rotation and guys get starts and get benched for no apparent reason. Fire Sam Mitchell already. How many in a row is Phoenix going to win?
Bulls beat Lakers----- Bulls just pull this out in a close game. Lakers cover the spread (barely).
Record on Tuesday: 2-0
Overall: 19-17
PICKS FOR TONIGHT
Detroit +3 at Cleveland----- I think the best word to describe Cleveland is stagnant. Their roster is full of old and washed up players (Newble, Wesley, Damon Jones, Donyell Marshall, Scott Pollard, Eric Snow). Their leader, Lebron, is mild mannered and generally seems uninterested in dominating. No one on the team cares enough to challenge him. That being said, Lebron was spectacular in last years playoffs against the Pistons. This is the first time the two have met since then, so that could motivate Lyndon B. Johnson. Rasheed Wallace is expecting to play, and although Flip Saunders is an idiot, expect him to give Maxiell some burn backing up and playing along side Rasheed. It would be hard for him to ignore his performance in their last game. As Lebron has disappointed me much more often than he has surprised me, I will take the Pistons.
Washington +3 1/2 at Sacramento----- Kevin Martin is questionable - I interpret that as meaning there's about a 20% chance he plays. Washington is coming off what was in my opinion their worst performance of the year in a loss to Denver. In general, however, they have played pretty well of late. Gilbert Arenas gets up for games against other big name guards and small forwards or dominating teams. He has had 7 35+ point performances and only one came against a team with a starless backcourt - Indiana. He went off against Kobe, Pierce, Lebron, the Mavs, Marbury/Francis and T-Mac. So does he get up for the mediocre Kings on the road? In his last 2 games at Sacramento he has had games of 22 points on 8/17 shooting and 29 on 7/22 shooting. These numbers don't really impress me. Still, a 3 1/2 point spread for a below .500 team that is likely missing it's top scorer? I'm not convinced. More info: Washington won both games last year. When they were @ Sac they won without Arenas. They will find motivation from their last game and get their act together enough to win this one.
He continued, "That's pretty much how it goes around here. I've learned not to put too much belief and hope in things until they're concrete and done. ... It would have been a very, very nice Christmas present."
Demand the trade already, KG. We won't blame you. The T-Wolves, the Bulls and the rest of the NBA will all be thankful... At least until they play you and the Bulls in the playoffs.
PICKS FROM TWO NIGHTS AGO
I missed picking last night as I was too busy, but here's a quick recap of Tuesday's picks.
Phoenix beats Toronto----- They covered the 13.5 point spread, but it was kinda close there. Check out the box score from this game (or last night's win at the Clippers) and you will see why John Hollinger is irritated with Toronto. These guys have no rotation and guys get starts and get benched for no apparent reason. Fire Sam Mitchell already. How many in a row is Phoenix going to win?
Bulls beat Lakers----- Bulls just pull this out in a close game. Lakers cover the spread (barely).
Record on Tuesday: 2-0
Overall: 19-17
PICKS FOR TONIGHT
Detroit +3 at Cleveland----- I think the best word to describe Cleveland is stagnant. Their roster is full of old and washed up players (Newble, Wesley, Damon Jones, Donyell Marshall, Scott Pollard, Eric Snow). Their leader, Lebron, is mild mannered and generally seems uninterested in dominating. No one on the team cares enough to challenge him. That being said, Lebron was spectacular in last years playoffs against the Pistons. This is the first time the two have met since then, so that could motivate Lyndon B. Johnson. Rasheed Wallace is expecting to play, and although Flip Saunders is an idiot, expect him to give Maxiell some burn backing up and playing along side Rasheed. It would be hard for him to ignore his performance in their last game. As Lebron has disappointed me much more often than he has surprised me, I will take the Pistons.
Washington +3 1/2 at Sacramento----- Kevin Martin is questionable - I interpret that as meaning there's about a 20% chance he plays. Washington is coming off what was in my opinion their worst performance of the year in a loss to Denver. In general, however, they have played pretty well of late. Gilbert Arenas gets up for games against other big name guards and small forwards or dominating teams. He has had 7 35+ point performances and only one came against a team with a starless backcourt - Indiana. He went off against Kobe, Pierce, Lebron, the Mavs, Marbury/Francis and T-Mac. So does he get up for the mediocre Kings on the road? In his last 2 games at Sacramento he has had games of 22 points on 8/17 shooting and 29 on 7/22 shooting. These numbers don't really impress me. Still, a 3 1/2 point spread for a below .500 team that is likely missing it's top scorer? I'm not convinced. More info: Washington won both games last year. When they were @ Sac they won without Arenas. They will find motivation from their last game and get their act together enough to win this one.
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
Knicks Brawl Wrap-Up and AI to Denver
BRAWL ANGLES AND STORYLINES
Basically each columnist picks a person who they believe crossed the line. Here are some links to start you out. You will find more links later in the article as I discuss issues related to them.
Adrian Wojnarowski for Yahoo! Sports blames George Karl. He was the first one to make a move that could be considered wrong and "as a result" his team paid the highest price.
Dan Wetzel at Yahoo! Sports points the finger at Isiah. It seems pretty clear that Isiah gave the order to give hard fouls, and Wetzel claims that was where the line was crossed and it was his fault the fight broke out. Wetzel says, "If [Isiah] had an ounce of self-respect, he'd realize there is only one person to blame for this disaster and it isn't George Karl for his substitution pattern ... It's all gone in New York now – the pride, the respect, the dignity. This isn't just a bad team; this is a bad act. A once proud franchise and fan base brought to its knees as its pathetic coach makes excuses and whines for mercy."
Basketball, like any other sport, has an etiquette: rules that aren't in the rule book but are understood by every player and coach. The first bit of etiquette that was broken is written in certain terms, but is not in itself a mortal offense, and that was George Karl leaving his starters in with one minute left. I don't care if the Knicks had cut a 28 point lead to 10 in like 3 minutes. I don't care if there hadn't been a stoppage of play. Karl should have taken a foul or called a timeout and gotten his starters out at least a minute earlier. But as I said, this could be viewed as a poor and reckless decision by Karl, but it is not a mortal offense.
The mortal offense came when, up 19, JR Smith decided to try to dunk on a breakaway with like 22 seconds on the shot-clock, at a point in the game when the Nuggets could have just dribbled the ball until the shot clock expired on every possession and the Knicks would have had no chance. Now I don't think Smith made that decision out of malevolence. I think he just likes to showboat and is not a thoughtful player. But don't tell me that Karl couldn't have made it clear to his players when he took at time out exactly 45 seconds earlier, to kill the clock. Now you're probably thinking, well, he just said Smith is an idiot - even if Karl had told him to kill time he may have gone ahead and disobeyed him. Here's the problem with that argument: Smith isn't the one who stole the ball or started the breakaway. Andre Miller stole, recovered the ball, then made the outlet pass to Smith. You can't tell me that Andre Miller, a 7 year NBA veteran, also had a brainfart and forgot that they were blowing the Knicks out. Karl has been coaching for 20 years. Before that he played in the NBA and ABA for another 5. Basketball etiquette has been burned into his mind.
It may have seemed like a subtle thing, not worthy of Isiah Thomas's reaction, but imagine a similar breach of etiquette in the real world: You are at a bar, holding hands and having a soft and loving conversation with your girlfriend. Another man comes up and interrupts your conversation and, back to you, starts hitting on your girl. This guy hasn't broken any laws... now what are you going to do - sit there and wait for him to leave and take the offense, or stand up for yourself? George Karl's team was breaking a rule that, in the game of basketball, is equally serious. Hell, the Pistons brawl broke out for a similar reason - Artest gave a hard foul on Ben Wallace despite the fact that Indy was up 15 with 46 seconds left. Because the game was already decided, etiquette says that you lay back on defense and let the other team score. Artest broke the rules and Ben Wallace flipped out.
Let's get this straight right now, each player is responsible for his or her own actions. I am only arguing that, up until just after Mardy Collins gave a hard foul, the only person who had done wrong was George Karl. He is the one who put his players in a difficult situation, because once the Knicks gave that hard foul, Smith had every right to be angry. He was just following coach's orders. So although it was a poor choice to get up and get in Collins' face, I think at least 80% of the players in the league would have responded in the same way. The blatantly poor and inexcusable situations came later: the first one came from Nate Robinson, who I believe is incapable of being calm, when he shoved Smith away from Collins. The next one came from Smith when he tried to tackle Robinson, and the final and worst decision came from Anthony, who wasn't anywhere near the initial play, things were just calming down, when he came in and punched Collins in the face. I really don't blame Jeffries for his response. Carmelo was the second person to break rules of etiquette for a fight (yes they exist) - and that is you don't hit someone when they aren't expecting it. It was fortunate for Jeffries the rest of the players that he tripped and was then held back by Mark Aguirre, or this could have gotten a lot uglier.
Now in the aftermath of the suspensions (which I will get to later), a lot of people are yelling that Isiah Thomas should have gotten suspended (Marc Stein, Chris Sheridan (requires ESPN Insider)). This is ridiculous. Even if Isiah Thomas told his players to give a hard foul, there is no chance in hell he told them to go start a fight. So he warned Carmelo not to go in the paint. How does that change anything? If the entire thing had ended after the foul by Collins (the only thing that Isiah Thomas can in any way be implicated for) then no one would be talking about this. Collins maybe gets suspended for a game, but even that I find unlikely.
Kelly Dwyer for Sports Illustrated basically says that we are overreacting. He skirts around the question of why we overreact to fights in the NBA and not in other sports. He also refuses to get into any discussion about who is at fault. I wonder if he just likes fluff or if SI forces him to avoid all controversy.
THE BIG PICTURE
Okay we've analyzed how it all went down and discussed who is most responsible for the brawl, now let's talk about what the brawl really meant in the broader scheme of things. The first big picture item up: Why is this getting so much press?
Dwyer suggests that, "Together, cats and kittens, let's turn off the cable TV and move on." Well, what is it that is keeping us attached to the tube? Why is this getting mainstream media attention when fights in other sports are ignored? Obviously there's the fact that it is the first brawl in the NBA since the Pistons brawl and that one was a real homerun for the media. But why? Here's my take:
Americans, unless they are from an urban area, learn most of what they "know" about the young black male from the tv and movies. I don't have to tell you that, by and large, young black men are portrayed as violent, unpredictable, alienated from American institutions like school.
For a sport where you are constantly in physical contact, pushing for position, getting knocked to floor, there are remarkably few fights. But because people prefer to see their expectations fulfilled, every time there is a fight, it gets blown up and is all over TV and news, and NBA players are called thugs, etc etc. Why does this have appeal? Because it gives people an excuse to write off the young black male again, just as he is in his underfunded inner-city schools; to call him uncontrollable and disrespectful of what he has been given to him. People have an excuse not to feel bad about the immense racial divide that, if you look at recent history,continues to grow. It is outrageous.
Hockey players have nearly killed other hockey players in fights. There are big brawls in baseball all the time. But when there's one fight in basketball, no one gets hurt, emotions are running high, the players are labelled as overpaid whiners who don't appreciate what they have. "The NBA gets another black eye". Those looking to maintain their hate and ignorance about black men quickly translate the media's label of "whiners" into a words whose hate is even less thinly veiled - they call the players, as you can read in comments on discussion boards over and over, "thugs", "animals", "monkeys".
People who are crying about these players should look at other sports that have faced real scandals (how about steroids), or look at our politicians. Those people are the real betrayers. I'm a privileged, laid-back white boy and I know I've gotten into plenty of fights on the basketball court. You know why? Because I'm playing really hard and the game is intense. Your kids will see much worse fights in their high school sports and in their backyard basketball games. There were some poor decisions, but it was in the spirit of competition, nothing evil or corrupting.
STERN'S REACTION
Stern is trying to accomodate the money that funds the NBA. He is trying to broaden the NBA's appeal. As much as I'm irritated by Stern's authoritarian way of handling a lot of the NBA's issues, I can't really blame him for this one. It's not his fault that our society is the way it is. There were two things that he had to do after this fight broke out:
1) Look at the every day sports fans expectation of what the suspensions might be and then double that number. Why? Because Stern has to come off as if he is taking a hard line here. You see people's brains work in a funny way. A person's first reaction to evidence contrary to what they have so far decided is the truth is to try to prove it wrong. If they can't do that then they will try to avoid it. If they can't do that then they will distort that evidence, look for reasons to believe that it isn't what it seems. In the case of the NBA, people have to look at black kids who come from the ghetto. And what is being challenged here? Why it's perhaps the most complex case of denial: it's the notion that the world is fair and that people get what they deserve. In order to justify in their own minds that black people deserve to be poorer than whites and that they don't have any responsibility to have a hand in changing the world, they search for evidence that blacks will toss away any opportunity that is given to them. They can continue to focus their energy on the problems that they confront in their own lives. They are able to maintain faith that everyone lives in a world that is ruled by justice, accountability, a world where good people get what they deserve. So, when Stern hands out ridiculously long suspensions, it is just the hand of justice giving these "thugs" what they deserve. They can watch the NBA without their naive perception of the world being threatened.
2) And of course Stern has to view every replay and at least assign suspensions that, in relation to one another, are fair. Carmelo did commit the biggest wrong and did deserve the largest suspension. Isiah Thomas did order a hard foul, but he didn't start the brawl. Etc, etc, etc.
The Detroit brawl and the NBA's ridiculous rule changes that followed are another example of this. There is nothing wrong or ridiculous within the simple idea of instituting a dress code. It is the reason why the dress code was instituted that is offensive: Stern chose to institute rules that whitewashed over the hip-hop styles that many NBA players identify with. He portrayed that clothing as wrong. His actions said, you can come from the ghetto, but you better not wear any clothes that remind us of that fact. You can be black, but you better recognize that we don't want any reminders of who you are or where you came from.
I could go on an on about this, but I'll stop here.
AI TO DENVER
I guess this is all Philly could get. Two late draft picks, a flawed point guard with an okay contract and a $7 million expiring contract. This isn't going to do much for Philly other than allow them to continue to bomb this season and improve their own draft pick. I would have held out longer. They should have been able to at least pick up Foye or Gerald Green and a better pick in the draft. I guess it could have been worse too though. Next year's draft is supposed to be amazing so these late picks, if the Sixers find someone who knows how to evaluate talent, could net them some contributors.
As far as AI in Denver goes, I don't think that the there will be big issues as far as Iverson and Melo sharing. I'm sure George Karl will have his problems with AI, but I don't think that it will end up being too big of a deal. The thing that bothers me most about this trade for Denver is that Iverson and Carmelo are redundant. They both like to get in the paint and draw fouls. When Carmelo is doing his thing, AI is going to be a non-factor and vice-versa. Yes, AI does create for other players, but all you ahve to do is look at Marbury and Francis in New York to see that a player who is used to and good at creating for himself is not going to be effective when he is on the receiving end. Carmelo is not a catch and shoot player. AI is not a catch and shoot player. These guys are both scorers. That has been the story of both of their careers. I think all Denver needed was another guy who plays defense and can hit a jumpshot. Work through anthony, keep 3 or 4 guys who can defend on the floor. Even with JR smith, who plays no defense, as his second option the nuggets looked decent. Why? Because smith doesn't need to put the ball on the floor. All he wants to do is chuck up threes.
I'm not saying the nuggets won't be better as a result of this trade, or that they shouldn't have done the deal (they hardly gave up anything), but I don't see great chemistry or playoff success in their future.
Basically each columnist picks a person who they believe crossed the line. Here are some links to start you out. You will find more links later in the article as I discuss issues related to them.
Adrian Wojnarowski for Yahoo! Sports blames George Karl. He was the first one to make a move that could be considered wrong and "as a result" his team paid the highest price.
Dan Wetzel at Yahoo! Sports points the finger at Isiah. It seems pretty clear that Isiah gave the order to give hard fouls, and Wetzel claims that was where the line was crossed and it was his fault the fight broke out. Wetzel says, "If [Isiah] had an ounce of self-respect, he'd realize there is only one person to blame for this disaster and it isn't George Karl for his substitution pattern ... It's all gone in New York now – the pride, the respect, the dignity. This isn't just a bad team; this is a bad act. A once proud franchise and fan base brought to its knees as its pathetic coach makes excuses and whines for mercy."
Basketball, like any other sport, has an etiquette: rules that aren't in the rule book but are understood by every player and coach. The first bit of etiquette that was broken is written in certain terms, but is not in itself a mortal offense, and that was George Karl leaving his starters in with one minute left. I don't care if the Knicks had cut a 28 point lead to 10 in like 3 minutes. I don't care if there hadn't been a stoppage of play. Karl should have taken a foul or called a timeout and gotten his starters out at least a minute earlier. But as I said, this could be viewed as a poor and reckless decision by Karl, but it is not a mortal offense.
The mortal offense came when, up 19, JR Smith decided to try to dunk on a breakaway with like 22 seconds on the shot-clock, at a point in the game when the Nuggets could have just dribbled the ball until the shot clock expired on every possession and the Knicks would have had no chance. Now I don't think Smith made that decision out of malevolence. I think he just likes to showboat and is not a thoughtful player. But don't tell me that Karl couldn't have made it clear to his players when he took at time out exactly 45 seconds earlier, to kill the clock. Now you're probably thinking, well, he just said Smith is an idiot - even if Karl had told him to kill time he may have gone ahead and disobeyed him. Here's the problem with that argument: Smith isn't the one who stole the ball or started the breakaway. Andre Miller stole, recovered the ball, then made the outlet pass to Smith. You can't tell me that Andre Miller, a 7 year NBA veteran, also had a brainfart and forgot that they were blowing the Knicks out. Karl has been coaching for 20 years. Before that he played in the NBA and ABA for another 5. Basketball etiquette has been burned into his mind.
It may have seemed like a subtle thing, not worthy of Isiah Thomas's reaction, but imagine a similar breach of etiquette in the real world: You are at a bar, holding hands and having a soft and loving conversation with your girlfriend. Another man comes up and interrupts your conversation and, back to you, starts hitting on your girl. This guy hasn't broken any laws... now what are you going to do - sit there and wait for him to leave and take the offense, or stand up for yourself? George Karl's team was breaking a rule that, in the game of basketball, is equally serious. Hell, the Pistons brawl broke out for a similar reason - Artest gave a hard foul on Ben Wallace despite the fact that Indy was up 15 with 46 seconds left. Because the game was already decided, etiquette says that you lay back on defense and let the other team score. Artest broke the rules and Ben Wallace flipped out.
Let's get this straight right now, each player is responsible for his or her own actions. I am only arguing that, up until just after Mardy Collins gave a hard foul, the only person who had done wrong was George Karl. He is the one who put his players in a difficult situation, because once the Knicks gave that hard foul, Smith had every right to be angry. He was just following coach's orders. So although it was a poor choice to get up and get in Collins' face, I think at least 80% of the players in the league would have responded in the same way. The blatantly poor and inexcusable situations came later: the first one came from Nate Robinson, who I believe is incapable of being calm, when he shoved Smith away from Collins. The next one came from Smith when he tried to tackle Robinson, and the final and worst decision came from Anthony, who wasn't anywhere near the initial play, things were just calming down, when he came in and punched Collins in the face. I really don't blame Jeffries for his response. Carmelo was the second person to break rules of etiquette for a fight (yes they exist) - and that is you don't hit someone when they aren't expecting it. It was fortunate for Jeffries the rest of the players that he tripped and was then held back by Mark Aguirre, or this could have gotten a lot uglier.
Now in the aftermath of the suspensions (which I will get to later), a lot of people are yelling that Isiah Thomas should have gotten suspended (Marc Stein, Chris Sheridan (requires ESPN Insider)). This is ridiculous. Even if Isiah Thomas told his players to give a hard foul, there is no chance in hell he told them to go start a fight. So he warned Carmelo not to go in the paint. How does that change anything? If the entire thing had ended after the foul by Collins (the only thing that Isiah Thomas can in any way be implicated for) then no one would be talking about this. Collins maybe gets suspended for a game, but even that I find unlikely.
Kelly Dwyer for Sports Illustrated basically says that we are overreacting. He skirts around the question of why we overreact to fights in the NBA and not in other sports. He also refuses to get into any discussion about who is at fault. I wonder if he just likes fluff or if SI forces him to avoid all controversy.
THE BIG PICTURE
Okay we've analyzed how it all went down and discussed who is most responsible for the brawl, now let's talk about what the brawl really meant in the broader scheme of things. The first big picture item up: Why is this getting so much press?
Dwyer suggests that, "Together, cats and kittens, let's turn off the cable TV and move on." Well, what is it that is keeping us attached to the tube? Why is this getting mainstream media attention when fights in other sports are ignored? Obviously there's the fact that it is the first brawl in the NBA since the Pistons brawl and that one was a real homerun for the media. But why? Here's my take:
Americans, unless they are from an urban area, learn most of what they "know" about the young black male from the tv and movies. I don't have to tell you that, by and large, young black men are portrayed as violent, unpredictable, alienated from American institutions like school.
For a sport where you are constantly in physical contact, pushing for position, getting knocked to floor, there are remarkably few fights. But because people prefer to see their expectations fulfilled, every time there is a fight, it gets blown up and is all over TV and news, and NBA players are called thugs, etc etc. Why does this have appeal? Because it gives people an excuse to write off the young black male again, just as he is in his underfunded inner-city schools; to call him uncontrollable and disrespectful of what he has been given to him. People have an excuse not to feel bad about the immense racial divide that, if you look at recent history,continues to grow. It is outrageous.
Hockey players have nearly killed other hockey players in fights. There are big brawls in baseball all the time. But when there's one fight in basketball, no one gets hurt, emotions are running high, the players are labelled as overpaid whiners who don't appreciate what they have. "The NBA gets another black eye". Those looking to maintain their hate and ignorance about black men quickly translate the media's label of "whiners" into a words whose hate is even less thinly veiled - they call the players, as you can read in comments on discussion boards over and over, "thugs", "animals", "monkeys".
People who are crying about these players should look at other sports that have faced real scandals (how about steroids), or look at our politicians. Those people are the real betrayers. I'm a privileged, laid-back white boy and I know I've gotten into plenty of fights on the basketball court. You know why? Because I'm playing really hard and the game is intense. Your kids will see much worse fights in their high school sports and in their backyard basketball games. There were some poor decisions, but it was in the spirit of competition, nothing evil or corrupting.
STERN'S REACTION
Stern is trying to accomodate the money that funds the NBA. He is trying to broaden the NBA's appeal. As much as I'm irritated by Stern's authoritarian way of handling a lot of the NBA's issues, I can't really blame him for this one. It's not his fault that our society is the way it is. There were two things that he had to do after this fight broke out:
1) Look at the every day sports fans expectation of what the suspensions might be and then double that number. Why? Because Stern has to come off as if he is taking a hard line here. You see people's brains work in a funny way. A person's first reaction to evidence contrary to what they have so far decided is the truth is to try to prove it wrong. If they can't do that then they will try to avoid it. If they can't do that then they will distort that evidence, look for reasons to believe that it isn't what it seems. In the case of the NBA, people have to look at black kids who come from the ghetto. And what is being challenged here? Why it's perhaps the most complex case of denial: it's the notion that the world is fair and that people get what they deserve. In order to justify in their own minds that black people deserve to be poorer than whites and that they don't have any responsibility to have a hand in changing the world, they search for evidence that blacks will toss away any opportunity that is given to them. They can continue to focus their energy on the problems that they confront in their own lives. They are able to maintain faith that everyone lives in a world that is ruled by justice, accountability, a world where good people get what they deserve. So, when Stern hands out ridiculously long suspensions, it is just the hand of justice giving these "thugs" what they deserve. They can watch the NBA without their naive perception of the world being threatened.
2) And of course Stern has to view every replay and at least assign suspensions that, in relation to one another, are fair. Carmelo did commit the biggest wrong and did deserve the largest suspension. Isiah Thomas did order a hard foul, but he didn't start the brawl. Etc, etc, etc.
The Detroit brawl and the NBA's ridiculous rule changes that followed are another example of this. There is nothing wrong or ridiculous within the simple idea of instituting a dress code. It is the reason why the dress code was instituted that is offensive: Stern chose to institute rules that whitewashed over the hip-hop styles that many NBA players identify with. He portrayed that clothing as wrong. His actions said, you can come from the ghetto, but you better not wear any clothes that remind us of that fact. You can be black, but you better recognize that we don't want any reminders of who you are or where you came from.
I could go on an on about this, but I'll stop here.
AI TO DENVER
I guess this is all Philly could get. Two late draft picks, a flawed point guard with an okay contract and a $7 million expiring contract. This isn't going to do much for Philly other than allow them to continue to bomb this season and improve their own draft pick. I would have held out longer. They should have been able to at least pick up Foye or Gerald Green and a better pick in the draft. I guess it could have been worse too though. Next year's draft is supposed to be amazing so these late picks, if the Sixers find someone who knows how to evaluate talent, could net them some contributors.
As far as AI in Denver goes, I don't think that the there will be big issues as far as Iverson and Melo sharing. I'm sure George Karl will have his problems with AI, but I don't think that it will end up being too big of a deal. The thing that bothers me most about this trade for Denver is that Iverson and Carmelo are redundant. They both like to get in the paint and draw fouls. When Carmelo is doing his thing, AI is going to be a non-factor and vice-versa. Yes, AI does create for other players, but all you ahve to do is look at Marbury and Francis in New York to see that a player who is used to and good at creating for himself is not going to be effective when he is on the receiving end. Carmelo is not a catch and shoot player. AI is not a catch and shoot player. These guys are both scorers. That has been the story of both of their careers. I think all Denver needed was another guy who plays defense and can hit a jumpshot. Work through anthony, keep 3 or 4 guys who can defend on the floor. Even with JR smith, who plays no defense, as his second option the nuggets looked decent. Why? Because smith doesn't need to put the ball on the floor. All he wants to do is chuck up threes.
I'm not saying the nuggets won't be better as a result of this trade, or that they shouldn't have done the deal (they hardly gave up anything), but I don't see great chemistry or playoff success in their future.
picks for tonight
tonight you get quickpicks so I can write about the brawl and AI later-
Lakers +6 at Chicago----- I think it's a good bet that LA will at least cover. Chicago hasn't won many games against good teams.
Toronto +13.5 at Phoenix----- The return of Bryan Colangelo. I think Phoenix can cover this one. Toronto is due for a big loss. Jose Calderon is out. Phoenix is on a roll.
Lakers +6 at Chicago----- I think it's a good bet that LA will at least cover. Chicago hasn't won many games against good teams.
Toronto +13.5 at Phoenix----- The return of Bryan Colangelo. I think Phoenix can cover this one. Toronto is due for a big loss. Jose Calderon is out. Phoenix is on a roll.
Monday, December 18, 2006
recapping last nights games/picks
My rights (they're first so you can read my diatribe about the Knicks straight off):
New York beats Utah----- The Knicks led this game for almost the entire second half. Deron Williams (31% from long distance) made a three with a hand in his face to tie this game with 10 seconds left in regulation. Williams also made a difficult layup about 7 seconds earlier. Then in overtime he made a 3 pointer that was well short but somehow spun up off the front rim, 2 or 3 feet in the air, then dropped through the basket. And on the Jazz's final possession he made a jumpshot with his foot on the three point line, fading away with a man in his face. He almost willed the Jazz to victory. The Jazz played well too - it was just that the Knicks were amazingly active on defense. They had 9 blocks and 10 steals and many key deflections. David Lee, Channing Frye and Renaldo Balkman combined for 45 rebounds, 18 on the offensive end against the best rebounding front line in the NBA. The Knicks outrebounded the Jazz 63-49 and 23-15 on the offensive glass.
The Knicks won this game by playing at a higher level of intensity than a Jazz team that is known for it's grittyness and effort. How did this happen? Well, look at who played - Lee, Frye and Balkman all had career highs in minutes. What do these guys have in common? First, all of their minutes have gone way down since Jared Jeffries got healthy, second, Lee and Balkman are notorious effort guys who put up great numbers considering how few minutes they play. Marbury is playing well again and seemed to pick the perfect spots to get into the paint and score.
And the final ingredient here was that Eddy Curry was in foul trouble and played only 22 minutes. I am not saying that Eddy Curry hurts this team. Against a less active defensive team where Curry has more time to gather himself and less length coming at him in double teams, Curry is a strong offensive presence, but the Jazz are Curry Kryptonite. He managed to play 22 minutes (about 1/2 of them after he picked up is 5th foul) and turned the ball over 4 times. The difference on the defensive end between him and Kelvin Cato, who also looked like he was out there to prove something (4 blocks in 17 mins), was astonishing. Pretty much the only easy shots that Utah had in the last 3 quarters and OT were when Curry, camped out in the lane and probably thinking something like, "Hey guys, hurry up and rebound the ball so you guys can watch me in the post," screened out the other Knicks racing over to cut a driving Utah player off. Isiah Thomas was out of timeouts with about 1 minute left in regulation because he had been calling them just to get Curry out of the game on defense.
Isiah Thomas loses everything at the end of the season, so he really has nothing to lose but pride by sitting Curry (or Francis) in exchange for an effort player if the situation calls for that. And it often will.
Memphis beats Seattle in double OT----- Well they covered...... I'm surprised that the rooks didn't get more time in a double OT game, especially with a player who will be out of the league when his rookie contract is up (dahnte jones) in their starting lineup. Then again Fratello's a tightass and once Gasol is traded this is going to be his undoing. Mike Miller had his best game in what has been his best statistical season in his career. He basically matched Rashard Lewis shot for shot. Gasol still isn't rebounding, but he shot well in his limited minutes.
Miami beats New Orleans (N.O. covers)----- Hornets led most of the way here but Wade saved the game. No news here really - Wade is a very good player stuck on a talentless, old and injury filled team. The Heat managed to just gut out a victory at home against a team that is just 2-8 since Stojakovic went down. Miami has not beaten a team that is currently over .500 this entire season. Wade has had to go for 29+ in 9 of their 11 victories. Antoine Walker, a key contributor to the Heat's playoff run last year, hasn't played 30+ minutes in the Heat's last 10 games - he only played 6 in this one. I don't think it's possible for the Heat to miss the playoffs as long as Wade stays healthy, but they are likely to end up a low seed and unless 34 year old shaq can get back in to tip-top form really quickly, this very thin team will have a tough time advancing.
My wrongs:
New Jersey beats Golden State----- Both teams played pretty poorly. Jason Kidd had a triple double, but he still shot only 4/14. Carter and Jefferson also had poor shooting nights. If Nenad Krstic hadn't had one of his games where he can't miss a jump shot, the Nets may have lost this one. They definitely would have covered. Either way, Golden State looks really bad on the road.
Denver beats Washington----- So I'm looking at the shot chart from this game and I'm seeing a lot of freaking Xs for the wizards on the outside. So many, all on top of one another, that I can't even count the number of misses. Gilbert Arenas had 3 attempts in the paint and made only 1. Caron Butler had 3 attempts in paint and made 2. Jamison is the only player who got off a decent # of paint shots, but he didn't make a single shot outside of the paint (0/9 outside the paint, 4/7 in it). And that right there is the problem with the Wizards on offense. Don't get me wrong, they are a dangerous offensive team, but when those outside shots aren't falling, when Arenas isn't making any of those ridiculous perimeter shots he tosses up (as has been the case on the road most of the season with the exception of their last game at the lakers), Washington can't score. And when you can't score and you can't play defense, how can you possibly win? Out of 290 total minutes (48 minutes times 5 positions), Denver played Yakhouba Diawara, Reggie Evans and Najera 85. That's a little under a 1/3 of their minutes played by guys who average a combined 19 ppg. You don't have to cover these guys. In fact, there were only two guys on the floor who could consistently hit a shot from outside like 18 feet - Kleiza and Boykins. Washington had to defend about 30% less of the floor than most other games. And they still gave up 117 points to a team missing their two top scorers. If I was Eddie Jordan I would have left the arena after Denver put up 65 in the first freakin' half. In my opinion this was a truly embarrassing performance by the Wizards and I hope Eddie Jordan went absolutely berzerk on his team. Really really sad.
Dallas beats Sacramento----- Hey, if I'd been patient enough to read through the entire post game recap of Sac's last game or the preview of this one, I would have known that Kevin Martin was unlikely to play and I would have picked Dallas. Oh well.
Tonight: 3-3
Overall: 17-17
New York beats Utah----- The Knicks led this game for almost the entire second half. Deron Williams (31% from long distance) made a three with a hand in his face to tie this game with 10 seconds left in regulation. Williams also made a difficult layup about 7 seconds earlier. Then in overtime he made a 3 pointer that was well short but somehow spun up off the front rim, 2 or 3 feet in the air, then dropped through the basket. And on the Jazz's final possession he made a jumpshot with his foot on the three point line, fading away with a man in his face. He almost willed the Jazz to victory. The Jazz played well too - it was just that the Knicks were amazingly active on defense. They had 9 blocks and 10 steals and many key deflections. David Lee, Channing Frye and Renaldo Balkman combined for 45 rebounds, 18 on the offensive end against the best rebounding front line in the NBA. The Knicks outrebounded the Jazz 63-49 and 23-15 on the offensive glass.
The Knicks won this game by playing at a higher level of intensity than a Jazz team that is known for it's grittyness and effort. How did this happen? Well, look at who played - Lee, Frye and Balkman all had career highs in minutes. What do these guys have in common? First, all of their minutes have gone way down since Jared Jeffries got healthy, second, Lee and Balkman are notorious effort guys who put up great numbers considering how few minutes they play. Marbury is playing well again and seemed to pick the perfect spots to get into the paint and score.
And the final ingredient here was that Eddy Curry was in foul trouble and played only 22 minutes. I am not saying that Eddy Curry hurts this team. Against a less active defensive team where Curry has more time to gather himself and less length coming at him in double teams, Curry is a strong offensive presence, but the Jazz are Curry Kryptonite. He managed to play 22 minutes (about 1/2 of them after he picked up is 5th foul) and turned the ball over 4 times. The difference on the defensive end between him and Kelvin Cato, who also looked like he was out there to prove something (4 blocks in 17 mins), was astonishing. Pretty much the only easy shots that Utah had in the last 3 quarters and OT were when Curry, camped out in the lane and probably thinking something like, "Hey guys, hurry up and rebound the ball so you guys can watch me in the post," screened out the other Knicks racing over to cut a driving Utah player off. Isiah Thomas was out of timeouts with about 1 minute left in regulation because he had been calling them just to get Curry out of the game on defense.
Isiah Thomas loses everything at the end of the season, so he really has nothing to lose but pride by sitting Curry (or Francis) in exchange for an effort player if the situation calls for that. And it often will.
Memphis beats Seattle in double OT----- Well they covered...... I'm surprised that the rooks didn't get more time in a double OT game, especially with a player who will be out of the league when his rookie contract is up (dahnte jones) in their starting lineup. Then again Fratello's a tightass and once Gasol is traded this is going to be his undoing. Mike Miller had his best game in what has been his best statistical season in his career. He basically matched Rashard Lewis shot for shot. Gasol still isn't rebounding, but he shot well in his limited minutes.
Miami beats New Orleans (N.O. covers)----- Hornets led most of the way here but Wade saved the game. No news here really - Wade is a very good player stuck on a talentless, old and injury filled team. The Heat managed to just gut out a victory at home against a team that is just 2-8 since Stojakovic went down. Miami has not beaten a team that is currently over .500 this entire season. Wade has had to go for 29+ in 9 of their 11 victories. Antoine Walker, a key contributor to the Heat's playoff run last year, hasn't played 30+ minutes in the Heat's last 10 games - he only played 6 in this one. I don't think it's possible for the Heat to miss the playoffs as long as Wade stays healthy, but they are likely to end up a low seed and unless 34 year old shaq can get back in to tip-top form really quickly, this very thin team will have a tough time advancing.
My wrongs:
New Jersey beats Golden State----- Both teams played pretty poorly. Jason Kidd had a triple double, but he still shot only 4/14. Carter and Jefferson also had poor shooting nights. If Nenad Krstic hadn't had one of his games where he can't miss a jump shot, the Nets may have lost this one. They definitely would have covered. Either way, Golden State looks really bad on the road.
Denver beats Washington----- So I'm looking at the shot chart from this game and I'm seeing a lot of freaking Xs for the wizards on the outside. So many, all on top of one another, that I can't even count the number of misses. Gilbert Arenas had 3 attempts in the paint and made only 1. Caron Butler had 3 attempts in paint and made 2. Jamison is the only player who got off a decent # of paint shots, but he didn't make a single shot outside of the paint (0/9 outside the paint, 4/7 in it). And that right there is the problem with the Wizards on offense. Don't get me wrong, they are a dangerous offensive team, but when those outside shots aren't falling, when Arenas isn't making any of those ridiculous perimeter shots he tosses up (as has been the case on the road most of the season with the exception of their last game at the lakers), Washington can't score. And when you can't score and you can't play defense, how can you possibly win? Out of 290 total minutes (48 minutes times 5 positions), Denver played Yakhouba Diawara, Reggie Evans and Najera 85. That's a little under a 1/3 of their minutes played by guys who average a combined 19 ppg. You don't have to cover these guys. In fact, there were only two guys on the floor who could consistently hit a shot from outside like 18 feet - Kleiza and Boykins. Washington had to defend about 30% less of the floor than most other games. And they still gave up 117 points to a team missing their two top scorers. If I was Eddie Jordan I would have left the arena after Denver put up 65 in the first freakin' half. In my opinion this was a truly embarrassing performance by the Wizards and I hope Eddie Jordan went absolutely berzerk on his team. Really really sad.
Dallas beats Sacramento----- Hey, if I'd been patient enough to read through the entire post game recap of Sac's last game or the preview of this one, I would have known that Kevin Martin was unlikely to play and I would have picked Dallas. Oh well.
Tonight: 3-3
Overall: 17-17
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